The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger...

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Veröffentlicht in:Nature climate change Jg. 8; H. 12; S. 1053 - 1061
Hauptverfasser: Pattyn, Frank, Ritz, Catherine, Hanna, Edward, Asay-Davis, Xylar, DeConto, Rob, Durand, Gaël, Favier, Lionel, Fettweis, Xavier, Goelzer, Heiko, Golledge, Nicholas R, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Lenaerts, Jan T M, Nowicki, Sophie, Payne, Antony J, Robinson, Alexander, Seroussi, Hélène, Trusel, Luke D, Michiel van den Broeke
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: London Nature Publishing Group 01.12.2018
Schlagworte:
Antarctic ice sheet
Anthropogenic factors
Basins
Climate change
Drainage basins
Glaciation
Global warming
Ice
Ice sheets
Mass
Mass balance
River basins
Antarctica
Greenland
ISSN:1758-678X, 1758-6798
Online-Zugang:Volltext
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Zusammenfassung:Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.
Bibliographie:ObjectType-Article-1
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ObjectType-Literature Review-2
ISSN:1758-678X
1758-6798
DOI:10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8