Uncertainty quantification of water age in water supply systems by use of spectral propagation
Water distribution networks are critical infrastructures that should ensure the reliable supply of high quality potable water to its users. Numerical models of these networks are generally governed by many parameters for which the exact value is not known. This may be due to a lack of precise knowle...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of hydroinformatics Jg. 22; H. 1; S. 111 - 120 |
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| Sprache: | Englisch |
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IWA Publishing
01.01.2020
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| ISSN: | 1464-7141, 1465-1734 |
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| Abstract | Water distribution networks are critical infrastructures that should ensure the reliable supply of high quality potable water to its users. Numerical models of these networks are generally governed by many parameters for which the exact value is not known. This may be due to a lack of precise knowledge like for consumer demand or due to a lack of accessibility as for the pipe roughness. For network managers, the effect of these uncertainties on the network state is important information that supports them in the decision-making process. This effect is generally evaluated by propagating the uncertainties using the mathematical model. In the past, perturbation, fuzzy and stochastic collocation methods have been used for uncertainty propagation. However, these methods are limited either in the accuracy of the results or the computational effort of the necessary calculations. This paper uses an alternative spectral approach that uses the polynomial chaos expansion and has the potential to give results of comparable accuracy to the Monte Carlo sampling through the definition of a stochastic model. This approach is applied to the hydraulic model of two real networks in order to evaluate the influence of uncertain demands on the water age. |
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| AbstractList | Water distribution networks are critical infrastructures that should ensure the reliable supply of high quality potable water to its users. Numerical models of these networks are generally governed by many parameters for which the exact value is not known. This may be due to a lack of precise knowledge like for consumer demand or due to a lack of accessibility as for the pipe roughness. For network managers, the effect of these uncertainties on the network state is important information that supports them in the decision-making process. This effect is generally evaluated by propagating the uncertainties using the mathematical model. In the past, perturbation, fuzzy and stochastic collocation methods have been used for uncertainty propagation. However, these methods are limited either in the accuracy of the results or the computational effort of the necessary calculations. This paper uses an alternative spectral approach that uses the polynomial chaos expansion and has the potential to give results of comparable accuracy to the Monte Carlo sampling through the definition of a stochastic model. This approach is applied to the hydraulic model of two real networks in order to evaluate the influence of uncertain demands on the water age. |
| Author | Iollo, Angelo Braun, Mathias Deuerlein, Jochen Piller, Olivier Mortazavi, Iraj |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Mathias surname: Braun fullname: Braun, Mathias organization: Irstea, Dept. of Water, Bordeaux Regional Centre, UR ETBX, 50 Ave. de Verdun, Gazinet, F-33612 Cestas, France, Inria Bordeaux-Sud-Ouest, Team MEMPHIS, 200 Avenue de la Vieille Tour, 33405 Talence, France – sequence: 2 givenname: Olivier surname: Piller fullname: Piller, Olivier organization: Irstea, Dept. of Water, Bordeaux Regional Centre, UR ETBX, 50 Ave. de Verdun, Gazinet, F-33612 Cestas, France, School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia – sequence: 3 givenname: Jochen surname: Deuerlein fullname: Deuerlein, Jochen organization: School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia, 3S Consult GmbH, Albtalstrasse 13, 76137 Karlsruhe, Germany – sequence: 4 givenname: Iraj surname: Mortazavi fullname: Mortazavi, Iraj organization: CNAM Paris, EA-7340-M2N-Modelisation Mathématique et Numérique, 75003 Paris, France – sequence: 5 givenname: Angelo surname: Iollo fullname: Iollo, Angelo organization: Inria Bordeaux-Sud-Ouest, Team MEMPHIS, 200 Avenue de la Vieille Tour, 33405 Talence, France, Université de Bordeaux, IMB, 33400 Talence, France |
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| Cites_doi | 10.2166/hydro.2017.134 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2009)135:1(38) 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1996)122:2(137) 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000363 10.1016/j.jcp.2010.12.021 10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0000138 10.1080/15730620802613380 10.1016/j.proeng.2014.02.148 10.1016/j.strusafe.2008.06.020 10.2166/aqua.2014.036 10.1016/S0951-8320(03)00058-9 10.1137/S1064827501387826 |
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| DOI | 10.2166/hydro.2019.017 |
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| Keywords | Water age Distribution multimodale Multimodal distribution Real network Uncertainty quantification Waterdistribution systems Réseau réel Quantification d'incertitude |
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| SubjectTerms | Accuracy Age Chaos Chlorine Collocation methods Computer applications Computer simulation Decision making Design of experiments Distribution management Drinking water Engineering Sciences Epistemology Hydraulic models Hydraulics Investigations Mathematical models Mathematics Monte Carlo simulation Networks Numerical models Optimization Perturbation methods Polynomials Propagation Random variables Roughness Statistical methods Stochastic models Uncertainty Water conveyance Water distribution Water engineering Water quality Water supply Water supply systems |
| Title | Uncertainty quantification of water age in water supply systems by use of spectral propagation |
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