Uncertainty quantification of water age in water supply systems by use of spectral propagation

Water distribution networks are critical infrastructures that should ensure the reliable supply of high quality potable water to its users. Numerical models of these networks are generally governed by many parameters for which the exact value is not known. This may be due to a lack of precise knowle...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of hydroinformatics Vol. 22; no. 1; pp. 111 - 120
Main Authors: Braun, Mathias, Piller, Olivier, Deuerlein, Jochen, Mortazavi, Iraj, Iollo, Angelo
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: London IWA Publishing 01.01.2020
Subjects:
Accuracy
Age
Chaos
Chlorine
Collocation methods
Computer applications
Computer simulation
Decision making
Design of experiments
Distribution management
Drinking water
Engineering Sciences
Epistemology
Hydraulic models
Hydraulics
Investigations
Mathematical models
Mathematics
Monte Carlo simulation
Networks
Numerical models
Optimization
Perturbation methods
Polynomials
Propagation
Random variables
Roughness
Statistical methods
Stochastic models
Uncertainty
Water conveyance
Water distribution
Water engineering
Water quality
Water supply
Water supply systems
Water age
Distribution multimodale
Multimodal distribution
Real network
Uncertainty quantification
Waterdistribution systems
Réseau réel
Quantification d'incertitude
ISSN:1464-7141, 1465-1734
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Water distribution networks are critical infrastructures that should ensure the reliable supply of high quality potable water to its users. Numerical models of these networks are generally governed by many parameters for which the exact value is not known. This may be due to a lack of precise knowledge like for consumer demand or due to a lack of accessibility as for the pipe roughness. For network managers, the effect of these uncertainties on the network state is important information that supports them in the decision-making process. This effect is generally evaluated by propagating the uncertainties using the mathematical model. In the past, perturbation, fuzzy and stochastic collocation methods have been used for uncertainty propagation. However, these methods are limited either in the accuracy of the results or the computational effort of the necessary calculations. This paper uses an alternative spectral approach that uses the polynomial chaos expansion and has the potential to give results of comparable accuracy to the Monte Carlo sampling through the definition of a stochastic model. This approach is applied to the hydraulic model of two real networks in order to evaluate the influence of uncertain demands on the water age.
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ISSN:1464-7141
1465-1734
DOI:10.2166/hydro.2019.017