Identification of growing tuberculosis incidence clusters in a region with a decrease in tuberculosis prevalence in Moscow (2000-2019)

The control of tuberculosis (TB) may benefit from a prospective identification of areas where the incidence may increase in addition to the traditionally identified foci of high incidence. We aimed to identify residential areas with growing tuberculosis incidence rates and assess their significance...

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Vydáno v:Journal of global health Ročník 13; s. 04052
Hlavní autoři: Romanyukha, Alexei A, Karkach, Arseny S, Borisov, Sergey E, Belilovsky, Evgeny M, Sannikova, Tatiana E
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Scotland Edinburgh University Global Health Society 26.05.2023
International Society of Global Health
Témata:
Disease control
Epidemiology
Genotype & phenotype
Global health
Humans
Incidence
Infections
Investigations
Laboratories
Moscow - epidemiology
Population density
Prevalence
Prospective Studies
Random variables
Residential areas
Spatial analysis
Stochastic models
Tuberculosis
Tuberculosis - epidemiology
Tuberculosis - prevention & control
Moscow
ISSN:2047-2978, 2047-2986, 2047-2986
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Shrnutí:The control of tuberculosis (TB) may benefit from a prospective identification of areas where the incidence may increase in addition to the traditionally identified foci of high incidence. We aimed to identify residential areas with growing tuberculosis incidence rates and assess their significance and stability. We analysed the changes in TB incidence rates using case data georeferenced with spatial granularity to apartment buildings in the territory of Moscow from 2000 to 2019. We identified sparsely distributed areas with significant increases in the incidence rate inside residential areas. We tested the stability of found growth areas to case underreporting via stochastic modelling. For 21 350 cases with smear- or culture-positive pulmonary TB among residents from 2000 to 2019, we identified 52 small-scale clusters of growing incidence rate responsible for 1% of all registered cases. We tested clusters of disease growth for underreporting and found them to be relatively unstable to resampling with case drop-out, but their spatial displacement was small. Territories with a stable increase in TB incidence rate were identified and compared to the rest of the city, which is characterised by a significant decrease in incidence. Identified areas with a tendency for an increase in the TB incidence rate may be important targets for disease control services.
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ISSN:2047-2978
2047-2986
2047-2986
DOI:10.7189/jogh.13.04052