Toward a Better Understanding of Wildfire Behavior in the Wildland‐Urban Interface: A Case Study of the 2021 Marshall Fire

On 30 December 2021, the Marshall Fire devastated the Boulder, Colorado region. The fire initiated in fine fuels in open space just southeast of Boulder and spread rapidly due to the strong, downslope winds that penetrated into the Boulder Foothills. Despite the increasing occurrence of wildland‐urb...

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Published in:Geophysical research letters Vol. 50; no. 10
Main Authors: Juliano, Timothy W., Lareau, Neil, Frediani, Maria E., Shamsaei, Kasra, Eghdami, Masih, Kosiba, Karen, Wurman, Joshua, DeCastro, Amy, Kosović, Branko, Ebrahimian, Hamed
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 28.05.2023
Wiley
Subjects:
Atmospheric models
Built environment
Disasters
Doppler sonar
Downslope winds
Fire behavior
Fires
Foothills
Fuels
Hydraulic jump
Modelling
Questions
Radar
Tornadoes
Turbulence
Urban environments
Vegetation
Wildfires
Wildland-urban interface
Winds
Work platforms
United States > US
Colorado
ISSN:0094-8276, 1944-8007
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:On 30 December 2021, the Marshall Fire devastated the Boulder, Colorado region. The fire initiated in fine fuels in open space just southeast of Boulder and spread rapidly due to the strong, downslope winds that penetrated into the Boulder Foothills. Despite the increasing occurrence of wildland‐urban interface (WUI) disasters, many questions remain about how fires progress through vegetation and the built environment. To help answer these questions for the Marshall Fire, we use a coupled fire‐atmosphere model and Doppler on Wheels (DOW) observations to study the fire's progression as well as examine the physical drivers of its spread. Evaluation of the model using the DOW suggests that the model is able to capture general characteristics of the flow field; however, it does not produce as robust of a hydraulic jump as the one observed. Our results highlight limitations of the model that should be addressed for successful WUI simulations. Plain Language Summary Wildland‐urban interface (WUI) fires are increasing in the United States and around the world as the built environment continues to expand into the wildland. To better inform real‐time management of active wildfires, it is critical that the scientific community can better predict WUI fire spread. In this study, we rely on multiple observational platforms, including the “Doppler on Wheels” radar, to investigate the performance of a state‐of‐the‐art fire behavior model that links with a weather model during the Marshall Fire, which was a recent WUI fire that occurred in Colorado. While the modeling system performs well during the fire's initial propagation in fine fuels, it is unable to accurately predict spread in the built environment. While turbulence‐resolving simulations can accurately represent atmospheric flow features, more reliable predictability of wildfire behavior in the WUI will require consideration of urban fuels and fire ember spotting. Key Points Complex meso‐ and micro‐scale meteorology, along with fire ember spotting, were responsible for rapid spread of the Marshall Fire Radar observations from “Doppler on Wheels” elucidates three‐dimensional flow structures that impact fire and plume evolution Initial fire propagation in dry, fine fuels is well‐represented by the coupled WRF‐Fire model, but urban spread remains a challenge
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ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1029/2022GL101557