Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate

A method for post‐processing decadal predictions from global climate models that accounts for model deficiencies in representing climate trends is proposed and applied to decadal predictions of annual global mean temperature from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis climate model....

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Vydáno v:	Geophysical research letters Ročník 39; číslo 19
Hlavní autoři:	Kharin, V. V., Boer, G. J., Merryfield, W. J., Scinocca, J. F., Lee, W.-S.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Washington, DC Blackwell Publishing Ltd 16.10.2012 American Geophysical Union John Wiley & Sons, Inc
Témata:	Atmospheric sciences bias correction Climate Climate change Climate models Climate science Computer simulation Data processing decadal predictions Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology Geobiology Geophysics Global climate Global climate models Global temperatures Mathematical models Mathematics skill statistical post-processing trend correction Trends Canada Initialization trend-surface analysis simulation Climate models global Long term variation climate North America standard samples Forecast skill prediction temperature Error correction Forcing errors
ISSN:	0094-8276, 1944-8007
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Popis
Shrnutí:	A method for post‐processing decadal predictions from global climate models that accounts for model deficiencies in representing climate trends is proposed and applied to decadal predictions of annual global mean temperature from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis climate model. The method, which provides a time‐dependent trend adjustment, reduces residual drifts that remain after applying the standard time‐independent bias correction when the modelled and observed long‐term trends differ. Initialized predictions and uninitialized simulations that share common specified external forcing are analyzed. Trend adjustment substantially reduces forecast errors in both cases and initialization further enhances skill, particularly for the first forecast year. Key Points A trend‐adjusting correction of decadal predictions is proposed The method reduces residual drifts remaining after standard bias correction Initialization enhances skill in decadal predictions in the first 1‐2 years
Bibliografie:	ark:/67375/WNG-KPVNK6RQ-K ArticleID:2012GL052647 istex:AE8CEAEFAA61BDFBBCCCDB14889F7E858C29F2C8 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 14 ObjectType-Article-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	0094-8276 1944-8007
DOI:	10.1029/2012GL052647