The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in southern California

•Water runoff will change the most out of five services under future climates.•One-third of high biodiversity areas are threatened by high change in CWD.•Carbon storage in southern California has an estimated value of $7.5 billion.•Quantification of services under future climates can inform climate-...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ecosystem services Vol. 39; p. 101008
Main Authors: Underwood, Emma C., Hollander, Allan D., Safford, Hugh D., Kim, John B., Srivastava, Lorie, Drapek, Ray J.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier B.V 01.10.2019
Subjects:
Biodiversity
California
carbon sequestration
Carbon storage
climate change
ecological footprint
economic valuation
ecosystem services
General Circulation Models
groundwater recharge
public lands
Recharge
Resource management
Runoff
Sediment export
sediment transport
sediments
vegetation
California
Recharge
Biodiversity
Resource management
Runoff
Carbon storage
Sediment export
ISSN:2212-0416, 2212-0416
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:•Water runoff will change the most out of five services under future climates.•One-third of high biodiversity areas are threatened by high change in CWD.•Carbon storage in southern California has an estimated value of $7.5 billion.•Quantification of services under future climates can inform climate-smart strategies. Climate change is projected to impact ecosystem functioning, however its effect on the provision of ecosystem services is uncertain. This is particularly relevant on federal lands which harbor extensive tracts of natural vegetation. We assessed change in four ecosystem services (water runoff, groundwater recharge, carbon storage, and biodiversity) and one disservice (sediment export) in southern California between current and end-of-century (2070–2099). We used five general circulation models ranging from warmer wetter (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4) to hotter, marginally drier (IPSL-CM5A-LR) to hotter drier (FGOALS-g2, MIROC-ESM) under RCP8.5. We found greatest projected change in water runoff, from an increase of 127% under a warmer wetter GCM to a decrease of −60% under a hotter drier future. Carbon storage is projected to change the least, from an increase of 52% to a decrease of −31% across GCMs. We also determined that one-third of high biodiversity areas are threatened by high change in climatic water deficit. We estimated the current monetized annual value of sediment removal costs to be $172 million per year and the economic value of carbon storage as $7.5 billion. Understanding the impacts of climate change on ecosystem services can help develop climate-smart strategies for the sustainable management of natural resources.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:2212-0416
2212-0416
DOI:10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.101008