Basic reproduction number of African swine fever in wild boars ( Sus scrofa ) and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity in South Korea
African swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic fever occurring in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and domestic pigs. The epidemic situation of ASF in South Korean wild boars has increased the risk of ASF in domestic pig farms. Although basic reproduction number (R0) can be applied for control policies, it is ch...
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| Vydané v: | Journal of veterinary science (Suwŏn-si, Korea) Ročník 22; číslo 5; s. e71 - 0 |
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| Hlavní autori: | , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | English |
| Vydavateľské údaje: |
The Korean Society of Veterinary Science
01.09.2021
대한수의학회 |
| Predmet: | |
| ISSN: | 1229-845X, 1976-555X, 1976-555X |
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| Shrnutí: | African swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic fever occurring in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and domestic pigs. The epidemic situation of ASF in South Korean wild boars has increased the risk of ASF in domestic pig farms. Although basic reproduction number (R0) can be applied for control policies, it is challenging to estimate the R0 for ASF in wild boars due to surveillance bias, lack of wild boar population data, and the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass on disease dynamics.BACKGROUNDAfrican swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic fever occurring in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and domestic pigs. The epidemic situation of ASF in South Korean wild boars has increased the risk of ASF in domestic pig farms. Although basic reproduction number (R0) can be applied for control policies, it is challenging to estimate the R0 for ASF in wild boars due to surveillance bias, lack of wild boar population data, and the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass on disease dynamics.This study was undertaken to estimate the R0 of ASF in wild boars in South Korea, and subsequently analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity.OBJECTIVESThis study was undertaken to estimate the R0 of ASF in wild boars in South Korea, and subsequently analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity.We detected the local transmission clusters using the spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, which was modified to incorporate the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass. With the assumption of exponential growth, R0 was estimated for each cluster. The temporal change of the estimates and its association with the habitat suitability of wild boar were analyzed.METHODSWe detected the local transmission clusters using the spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, which was modified to incorporate the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass. With the assumption of exponential growth, R0 was estimated for each cluster. The temporal change of the estimates and its association with the habitat suitability of wild boar were analyzed.Totally, 22 local transmission clusters were detected, showing seasonal patterns occurring in winter and spring. Mean value of R0 of each cluster was 1.54. The estimates showed a temporal increasing trend and positive association with habitat suitability of wild boar.RESULTSTotally, 22 local transmission clusters were detected, showing seasonal patterns occurring in winter and spring. Mean value of R0 of each cluster was 1.54. The estimates showed a temporal increasing trend and positive association with habitat suitability of wild boar.The disease dynamics among wild boars seems to have worsened over time. Thus, in areas with a high elevation and suitable for wild boars, practical methods need to be contrived to ratify the control policies for wild boars.CONCLUSIONSThe disease dynamics among wild boars seems to have worsened over time. Thus, in areas with a high elevation and suitable for wild boars, practical methods need to be contrived to ratify the control policies for wild boars. |
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| Bibliografia: | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 https://doi.org/10.4142/jvs.2021.22.e71 |
| ISSN: | 1229-845X 1976-555X 1976-555X |
| DOI: | 10.4142/jvs.2021.22.e71 |