Planning energy-water nexus system under multiple uncertainties – A case study of Hebei province

•An interval-fuzzy chance-constrained programming method is developed.•It can address uncertainties expressed as interval values and fuzzy random variables.•Energy-water nexus system optimization model is formulated for Hebei, China.•Tradeoffs among system cost, electricity demand and water resource...

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Vydané v:	Applied energy Ročník 229; s. 389 - 403
Hlavní autori:	Lv, J., Li, Y.P., Shan, B.G., Jin, S.W., Suo, C.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	Elsevier Ltd 01.11.2018
Predmet:	case studies China coal electricity Electricity supply energy Energy-water nexus Interval-fuzzy chance-constrained programming Multiple uncertainties oils planning power generation sustainable development uncertainty Water shortage water shortages China Energy-water nexus Interval-fuzzy chance-constrained programming Water shortage Multiple uncertainties Electricity supply
ISSN:	0306-2619, 1872-9118
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Abstract	•An interval-fuzzy chance-constrained programming method is developed.•It can address uncertainties expressed as interval values and fuzzy random variables.•Energy-water nexus system optimization model is formulated for Hebei, China.•Tradeoffs among system cost, electricity demand and water resources are analyzed.•The proportion of coal-fired power would reduce by about 12.09% in 2023. Energy and water are inextricably linked. The shrinking water availabilities, increasing energy demand, and severe resources shortage pose great challenges for socioeconomic sustainable development. In this study, an interval-fuzzy chance-constrained programming method that is capable of addressing uncertainties expressed as interval values, fuzzy sets and fuzzy-probability distributions existed in the energy-water nexus system is developed. Then, the developed method is applied to a real case of Hebei province (in northern China) that heavily relies on fossil fuels such as coal and oil as sources of energy. A variety of scenarios associated with different water availabilities and multiple uncertainties are examined. Results reveal that both water availabilities and uncertainties have significant effects on the energy-water nexus system planning strategies. Compared to the scenario with high water-availability, the energy-water nexus system would save 10.9% of water under low water availability; however, the imported electricity would increase 8.2% to offset the local power-generation shortage. Results also disclose that the study system would gradually transit to renewable energies and the proportion of coal-fired power would reduce by 12.09% at the end of planning horizon. These findings can provide useful information for the other regions to achieve adjustment of the conflict among economic objective, electricity demand, and water shortage.
AbstractList	Energy and water are inextricably linked. The shrinking water availabilities, increasing energy demand, and severe resources shortage pose great challenges for socioeconomic sustainable development. In this study, an interval-fuzzy chance-constrained programming method that is capable of addressing uncertainties expressed as interval values, fuzzy sets and fuzzy-probability distributions existed in the energy-water nexus system is developed. Then, the developed method is applied to a real case of Hebei province (in northern China) that heavily relies on fossil fuels such as coal and oil as sources of energy. A variety of scenarios associated with different water availabilities and multiple uncertainties are examined. Results reveal that both water availabilities and uncertainties have significant effects on the energy-water nexus system planning strategies. Compared to the scenario with high water-availability, the energy-water nexus system would save 10.9% of water under low water availability; however, the imported electricity would increase 8.2% to offset the local power-generation shortage. Results also disclose that the study system would gradually transit to renewable energies and the proportion of coal-fired power would reduce by 12.09% at the end of planning horizon. These findings can provide useful information for the other regions to achieve adjustment of the conflict among economic objective, electricity demand, and water shortage. •An interval-fuzzy chance-constrained programming method is developed.•It can address uncertainties expressed as interval values and fuzzy random variables.•Energy-water nexus system optimization model is formulated for Hebei, China.•Tradeoffs among system cost, electricity demand and water resources are analyzed.•The proportion of coal-fired power would reduce by about 12.09% in 2023. Energy and water are inextricably linked. The shrinking water availabilities, increasing energy demand, and severe resources shortage pose great challenges for socioeconomic sustainable development. In this study, an interval-fuzzy chance-constrained programming method that is capable of addressing uncertainties expressed as interval values, fuzzy sets and fuzzy-probability distributions existed in the energy-water nexus system is developed. Then, the developed method is applied to a real case of Hebei province (in northern China) that heavily relies on fossil fuels such as coal and oil as sources of energy. A variety of scenarios associated with different water availabilities and multiple uncertainties are examined. Results reveal that both water availabilities and uncertainties have significant effects on the energy-water nexus system planning strategies. Compared to the scenario with high water-availability, the energy-water nexus system would save 10.9% of water under low water availability; however, the imported electricity would increase 8.2% to offset the local power-generation shortage. Results also disclose that the study system would gradually transit to renewable energies and the proportion of coal-fired power would reduce by 12.09% at the end of planning horizon. These findings can provide useful information for the other regions to achieve adjustment of the conflict among economic objective, electricity demand, and water shortage.
Author	Suo, C. Lv, J. Shan, B.G. Jin, S.W. Li, Y.P.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: J. surname: Lv fullname: Lv, J. organization: Sino-Canada Energy and Environmental Research Center, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China – sequence: 2 givenname: Y.P. surname: Li fullname: Li, Y.P. email: yongping.li@iseis.org organization: School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China – sequence: 3 givenname: B.G. surname: Shan fullname: Shan, B.G. email: shanbaoguo@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn organization: State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China – sequence: 4 givenname: S.W. surname: Jin fullname: Jin, S.W. organization: Sino-Canada Energy and Environmental Research Center, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China – sequence: 5 givenname: C. surname: Suo fullname: Suo, C. organization: Sino-Canada Energy and Environmental Research Center, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
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Snippet	•An interval-fuzzy chance-constrained programming method is developed.•It can address uncertainties expressed as interval values and fuzzy random... Energy and water are inextricably linked. The shrinking water availabilities, increasing energy demand, and severe resources shortage pose great challenges for...
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SubjectTerms	case studies China coal electricity Electricity supply energy Energy-water nexus Interval-fuzzy chance-constrained programming Multiple uncertainties oils planning power generation sustainable development uncertainty Water shortage water shortages
Title	Planning energy-water nexus system under multiple uncertainties – A case study of Hebei province
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