Conflict probability estimation between aircraft with dynamic importance splitting

► Aircraft path modelled with realistic Markov chains based on measured trajectory database. ► The proposed scenario estimates collision and conflict probabilities for given flight plans. ► Improved estimation with splitting algorithm instead of Monte Carlo simulations. In this article, conflict pro...

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Vydáno v:	Safety science Ročník 51; číslo 1; s. 94 - 100
Hlavní autoři:	Jacquemart, Damien, Morio, Jérôme
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Kidlington Elsevier India Pvt Ltd 01.01.2013 Elsevier
Témata:	Air transportation and traffic Applied sciences Biological and medical sciences Conflict probability Exact sciences and technology Ground, air and sea transportation, marine construction Importance splitting Markov chain Mathematics Medical sciences Miscellaneous Monte Carlo methods Probability Public health. Hygiene Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine Rare event simulation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods Conflict probability Importance splitting Rare event simulation Monte Carlo method Estimation Collision Probability Rare event Prevention Airplane Accident Simulation Air traffic Traffic safety Aircraft
ISSN:	0925-7535, 1879-1042
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Shrnutí:	► Aircraft path modelled with realistic Markov chains based on measured trajectory database. ► The proposed scenario estimates collision and conflict probabilities for given flight plans. ► Improved estimation with splitting algorithm instead of Monte Carlo simulations. In this article, conflict probability between aircraft in uncontrolled airspace is estimated. For that purpose, one reviews how to characterize aircraft trajectories with stochastic processes. Indeed, Markov chain model enables us to simulate aircraft trajectories. Conflict probabilities can be estimated with Monte Carlo simulations. Nevertheless, since Monte Carlo methods are not efficient to estimate small probabilities, one proposes the use of the important splitting method. This algorithm is applied on realistic situations of aircraft conflict.
Bibliografie:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	0925-7535 1879-1042
DOI:	10.1016/j.ssci.2012.05.010