Conflict probability estimation between aircraft with dynamic importance splitting

► Aircraft path modelled with realistic Markov chains based on measured trajectory database. ► The proposed scenario estimates collision and conflict probabilities for given flight plans. ► Improved estimation with splitting algorithm instead of Monte Carlo simulations. In this article, conflict pro...

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Veröffentlicht in:Safety science Jg. 51; H. 1; S. 94 - 100
Hauptverfasser: Jacquemart, Damien, Morio, Jérôme
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Kidlington Elsevier India Pvt Ltd 01.01.2013
Elsevier
Schlagworte:
Air transportation and traffic
Applied sciences
Biological and medical sciences
Conflict probability
Exact sciences and technology
Ground, air and sea transportation, marine construction
Importance splitting
Markov chain
Mathematics
Medical sciences
Miscellaneous
Monte Carlo methods
Probability
Public health. Hygiene
Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine
Rare event simulation
Markov chain
Monte Carlo methods
Conflict probability
Importance splitting
Rare event simulation
Monte Carlo method
Estimation
Collision
Probability
Rare event
Prevention
Airplane
Accident
Simulation
Air traffic
Traffic safety
Aircraft
ISSN:0925-7535, 1879-1042
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Zusammenfassung:► Aircraft path modelled with realistic Markov chains based on measured trajectory database. ► The proposed scenario estimates collision and conflict probabilities for given flight plans. ► Improved estimation with splitting algorithm instead of Monte Carlo simulations. In this article, conflict probability between aircraft in uncontrolled airspace is estimated. For that purpose, one reviews how to characterize aircraft trajectories with stochastic processes. Indeed, Markov chain model enables us to simulate aircraft trajectories. Conflict probabilities can be estimated with Monte Carlo simulations. Nevertheless, since Monte Carlo methods are not efficient to estimate small probabilities, one proposes the use of the important splitting method. This algorithm is applied on realistic situations of aircraft conflict.
Bibliographie:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:0925-7535
1879-1042
DOI:10.1016/j.ssci.2012.05.010