Repression and Dissent in Moments of Uncertainty: Panel Data Evidence from Zimbabwe

State repression and protest are common in modern authoritarian and hybrid regimes, yet individual responses to these events are not well understood. This article draws on unique panel data from the months spanning Zimbabwe’s 2018 election, which we view as a moment of uncertainty for most Zimbabwea...

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Published in:The American political science review Vol. 118; no. 2; pp. 584 - 601
Main Authors: LEBAS, ADRIENNE, YOUNG, LAUREN E.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: New York, USA Cambridge University Press 01.05.2024
Subjects:
Activism
Beliefs
Data collection
Demonstrations & protests
Dissent
Economic crisis
Elections
Emotional Response
Emotions
Evidence
Incumbency
Individual differences
Leadership
Mass media effects
Mobilization
Panel data
Politics
Population Distribution
Psychological Patterns
Risk perception
Social media
Social networks
Supporters
Uncertainty
Zimbabwe
ISSN:0003-0554, 1537-5943
Online Access:Get full text
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Abstract State repression and protest are common in modern authoritarian and hybrid regimes, yet individual responses to these events are not well understood. This article draws on unique panel data from the months spanning Zimbabwe’s 2018 election, which we view as a moment of uncertainty for most Zimbabwean citizens. Using a difference-in-difference estimator, we estimate change in individual protest intentions following exposure to repression and dissent and we assess three individual-level mechanisms hypothesized to drive responses. We find evidence that exposure to local repression and dissent are mobilizing among opposition supporters and nonpartisans. Analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that the effects of exposure to dissent may be driven by information updating, whereas relational and emotional mechanisms seem to drive backlash against repression, despite increased perceptions of risk. We find no evidence of counter-mobilization by ruling party supporters, and little effect of exposure to contentious events over social media.
AbstractList State repression and protest are common in modern authoritarian and hybrid regimes, yet individual responses to these events are not well understood. This article draws on unique panel data from the months spanning Zimbabwe’s 2018 election, which we view as a moment of uncertainty for most Zimbabwean citizens. Using a difference-in-difference estimator, we estimate change in individual protest intentions following exposure to repression and dissent and we assess three individual-level mechanisms hypothesized to drive responses. We find evidence that exposure to local repression and dissent are mobilizing among opposition supporters and nonpartisans. Analysis of potential mechanisms suggests that the effects of exposure to dissent may be driven by information updating, whereas relational and emotional mechanisms seem to drive backlash against repression, despite increased perceptions of risk. We find no evidence of counter-mobilization by ruling party supporters, and little effect of exposure to contentious events over social media.
Author YOUNG, LAUREN E.
LEBAS, ADRIENNE
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  surname: YOUNG
  fullname: YOUNG, LAUREN E.
  email: leyou@ucdavis.edu
  organization: University of California, Davis, United States
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Copyright The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association
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Copyright_xml – notice: The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association
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Snippet State repression and protest are common in modern authoritarian and hybrid regimes, yet individual responses to these events are not well understood. This...
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StartPage 584
SubjectTerms Activism
Beliefs
Data collection
Demonstrations & protests
Dissent
Economic crisis
Elections
Emotional Response
Emotions
Evidence
Incumbency
Individual differences
Leadership
Mass media effects
Mobilization
Panel data
Politics
Population Distribution
Psychological Patterns
Risk perception
Social media
Social networks
Supporters
Uncertainty
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Title Repression and Dissent in Moments of Uncertainty: Panel Data Evidence from Zimbabwe
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