Complexity, the science of cities and long-range futures

► Complexity theories of cities unify a wide variety of urban phenomena. ► The institutional coordination of urban technology leads to city transformations. ► Cities diffuse investment capital with gradients in investment returns, phase transitions and chaos. ► Some social norms and planning standar...

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Vydáno v:Futures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies Ročník 47; s. 49 - 58
Hlavní autor: Samet, Robert H.
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.03.2013
Elsevier Science Ltd
Témata:
Biology
Cities
Climate change
Complexity
Complexity theory
Coordination
Ecology
Human settlement
Human settlements
Megacities
Phase transitions
Physics
Principles
Resilience
Science
Science and technology
Social norms
Studies
Technological change
Urban areas
Urban development
Urbanization
ISSN:0016-3287, 1873-6378
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Shrnutí:► Complexity theories of cities unify a wide variety of urban phenomena. ► The institutional coordination of urban technology leads to city transformations. ► Cities diffuse investment capital with gradients in investment returns, phase transitions and chaos. ► Some social norms and planning standards scale across a range of city sizes. ► The trajectory of the urban system provides a framework for long-range futures research. The emergence of a ‘science of cities’ provides the foundations for long-range futures research that may be applied to models of climate change, with a time horizon in excess of 150 years. The features of a complexity theory of cities have been developed at multiple levels with scientific analogies such as ecology, biology and physics. The following principles apply: (1) complexity science unifies a wide variety of urban phenomena including emergence, technological evolution, civil phase transitions, macrolaws, and resilience to system failures and extreme events. (2). World urbanisation raises the number of levels in the urban hierarchy, with an increasing number of megacities with over 10m inhabitants. (3) Urban development involves the institutional coordination of technological development with engineered transformations. (4) Civil and societal transitions arise with increasing per capita investment, such that some social norms and planning standards have consistent scaling factors across a range of city sizes for countries at similar stages of development. (5) The trajectory of the urban system depends upon the allometric pattern of growth for cities, and human settlements in 2150 will occupy less than 10% of the world's land area.
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ISSN:0016-3287
1873-6378
DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.006