Coupling the two-level programming and copula for optimizing energy-water nexus system management – A case study of Henan Province

[Display omitted] •A copula-based interval two-level programming (CITP) method is developed.•CITP is applied to the energy-water nexus system (EWNS) of Henan Province, China.•It can balance conflicts by diverse levels and reflect the risk interactions.•Various decision-making levels and diverse risk...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) Vol. 586; p. 124832
Main Authors: Yu, L., Li, Q.W., Jin, S.W., Chen, C., Li, Y.P., Fan, Y.R., Zuo, Q.T.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier B.V 01.07.2020
Subjects:
case studies
China
Copula
decision making
electricity
Energy-water nexus system
hydrology
Planning
risk
Risk interactions
Two-level programming
Uncertainty
wind power
China
Two-level programming
Risk interactions
Uncertainty
Energy-water nexus system
Copula
Planning
ISSN:0022-1694, 1879-2707
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:[Display omitted] •A copula-based interval two-level programming (CITP) method is developed.•CITP is applied to the energy-water nexus system (EWNS) of Henan Province, China.•It can balance conflicts by diverse levels and reflect the risk interactions.•Various decision-making levels and diverse risk-interaction scenarios are analyzed.•Findings can provide decision supports for the coordinated development of EWNS. The management of water resources system and energy system belongs to different decision-making departments, and there is a certain hierarchical relationship between them. Optimizing the configuration of regional-scale water and energy systems from a global perspective, and considering the correlations between water resources shortage risk and energy shortage risk as well as their joint-risk interaction, can improve the accuracy and efficiency of management decisions. This study aims to propose a copula-based interval two-level programming (CITP) method by integrating a copula-based interval stochastic programming (CISP) method and two-level programming (TP) method. CITP cannot only balance the goals and preferences among different decision-making levels but also analyze the risk interactions between water resources availability and electricity demand. The CITP method is then applied to planning the energy-water nexus system (EWNS) of Henan Province (China), where various decision-making levels and diverse risk-interaction scenarios are analyzed. Results reveal that: during the planning horizon, a) the total electricity-generation amounts can change by 7.31 × 103 GWh from S1 to S5; b) the future electricity-supply structure will toward a more sustainable aspect, and the electricity generated from gas-fired, hydro and wind power can increase by 6.2 × 103 GWh, 3.7 × 103 GWh and 5.8 × 103 GWh, respectively. Results can provide decision supports for the coordinated development of regional-scale EWNS management among water, energy, economy and society as well as environment.
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ISSN:0022-1694
1879-2707
DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124832