Probabilistic Estimates of Transient Climate Sensitivity Subject to Uncertainty in Forcing and Natural Variability

In this paper, the authors address the impact of uncertainty on estimates of transient climate sensitivity (TCS) of the globally averaged surface temperature, including both uncertainty in past forcing and internal variability in the climate record. This study provides a range of probabilistic estim...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Journal of climate Vol. 24; no. 21; pp. 5521 - 5537
Main Authors:	Padilla, Lauren E., Vallis, Geoffrey K., Rowley, Clarence W.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Boston, MA American Meteorological Society 01.11.2011
Subjects:	20th century Aerosols Atmospheric circulation Carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide concentration Climate Climate change Climate models Climate sensitivity Conditional probability Confidence interval Confidence intervals Earth, ocean, space Emissions Energy balance Equilibrium Estimates Exact sciences and technology External geophysics General circulation models Global climate models Global temperatures Global warming Heat Kalman filters Modelling Natural variability Ocean temperature Oceanic general circulation model Oceans Parametric models Probability theory Sensitivity Standard deviation Statistical analysis Surface temperature Temperature Temperature data Uncertainty Variability Short term Transient response trend-surface analysis General circulation models stabilization sensitivity analysis Carbon dioxide Non linear filter Surface temperature energy balance digital simulation ocean-atmosphere interaction Long term greenhouse gas Ocean-atmosphere model Century 20th Forcing Medium term transient phenomena Kalman filters uncertainties
ISSN:	0894-8755, 1520-0442
Online Access:	Get full text
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