Transient population dynamics impede restoration and may promote ecosystem transformation after disturbance

The apparent failure of ecosystems to recover from increasingly widespread disturbance is a global concern. Despite growing focus on factors inhibiting resilience and restoration, we still know very little about how demographic and population processes influence recovery. Using inverse and forward d...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ecology letters Vol. 22; no. 9; pp. 1357 - 1366
Main Authors: Shriver, Robert K., Andrews, Caitlin M., Arkle, Robert S., Barnard, David M., Duniway, Michael C., Germino, Matthew J., Pilliod, David S., Pyke, David A., Welty, Justin L., Bradford, John B., Wang, Shaopeng
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.09.2019
Subjects:
Artemisia
big sagebrush
Demographics
demography
Disturbances
drylands
Ecosystem recovery
ecosystem transformation
Ecosystems
Growth rate
Population decline
Population density
Population dynamics
Population growth
Population structure
Recovery
regime shifts
resilience
Restoration
risk
Seeds
transient population dynamics
Western United States
Western United States
transient population dynamics
big sagebrush
demography
drylands
ecosystem transformation
resilience
restoration
regime shifts
ISSN:1461-023X, 1461-0248, 1461-0248
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The apparent failure of ecosystems to recover from increasingly widespread disturbance is a global concern. Despite growing focus on factors inhibiting resilience and restoration, we still know very little about how demographic and population processes influence recovery. Using inverse and forward demographic modelling of 531 post‐fire sagebrush populations across the western US, we show that demographic processes during recovery from seeds do not initially lead to population growth but rather to years of population decline, low density, and risk of extirpation after disturbance and restoration, even at sites with potential to support long‐term, stable populations. Changes in population structure, and resulting transient population dynamics, lead to a > 50% decline in population growth rate after disturbance and significant reductions in population density. Our results indicate that demographic processes influence the recovery of ecosystems from disturbance and that demographic analyses can be used by resource managers to anticipate ecological transformation risk.
Bibliography:Data Availability Statement
Data and STAN code will be made publicly available in USGS Science Base; Data are available at
https://doi.org/10.5066/P944D1YU
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ISSN:1461-023X
1461-0248
1461-0248
DOI:10.1111/ele.13291