Low-carbon technology diffusion and economic growth of China: an evolutionary general equilibrium framework
•We proposed an evolutionary general equilibrium framework on new technology diffusion and economic growth.•The framework can capture the nonlinear, path-dependent, and S-shaped technological diffusion process.•Impact of carbon pricing and life expectancy of coal-fired power is analyzed.•A well-desi...
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| Vydáno v: | Structural change and economic dynamics Ročník 65; s. 253 - 263 |
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| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
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Elsevier B.V
01.06.2023
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| ISSN: | 0954-349X, 1873-6017 |
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| Abstract | •We proposed an evolutionary general equilibrium framework on new technology diffusion and economic growth.•The framework can capture the nonlinear, path-dependent, and S-shaped technological diffusion process.•Impact of carbon pricing and life expectancy of coal-fired power is analyzed.•A well-designed policy can bring a win-win future for near-zero emissions of power sector and economic growth of china.•The framework may be insightful for developing the next-generation computable general equilibrium models on structural change of low-carbon technologies.
The thorough transition of energy system is required to achieve the Paris Agreement goal. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common tool for estimating the energy transition pathway and the impact of low-carbon policies on economic growth. However, CGE models encounter challenges on modeling diffusion of new technologies. This study proposed a novel evolutionary dynamic general equilibrium model to capture the nonlinear, path-dependent and S-shaped technology diffusion process, and examined the low-carbon transition pathway of power sector and its impact on economic growth of China. We found that imposing a moderate carbon tax and avoiding the over-reliance on coal-fired power could achieve the near-zero emissions of power sector, avoid the large economic loss and hasten the economic growth in the long term. The evolutionary framework may be useful for developing the next-generation model, particularly for simulating the diffusion of new technologies, and their structural effects on economic dynamics. |
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| AbstractList | •We proposed an evolutionary general equilibrium framework on new technology diffusion and economic growth.•The framework can capture the nonlinear, path-dependent, and S-shaped technological diffusion process.•Impact of carbon pricing and life expectancy of coal-fired power is analyzed.•A well-designed policy can bring a win-win future for near-zero emissions of power sector and economic growth of china.•The framework may be insightful for developing the next-generation computable general equilibrium models on structural change of low-carbon technologies.
The thorough transition of energy system is required to achieve the Paris Agreement goal. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common tool for estimating the energy transition pathway and the impact of low-carbon policies on economic growth. However, CGE models encounter challenges on modeling diffusion of new technologies. This study proposed a novel evolutionary dynamic general equilibrium model to capture the nonlinear, path-dependent and S-shaped technology diffusion process, and examined the low-carbon transition pathway of power sector and its impact on economic growth of China. We found that imposing a moderate carbon tax and avoiding the over-reliance on coal-fired power could achieve the near-zero emissions of power sector, avoid the large economic loss and hasten the economic growth in the long term. The evolutionary framework may be useful for developing the next-generation model, particularly for simulating the diffusion of new technologies, and their structural effects on economic dynamics. |
| Author | An, Kangxin Cai, Wenjia Wang, Can |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Kangxin orcidid: 0000-0002-9161-7756 surname: An fullname: An, Kangxin organization: State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC) School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China – sequence: 2 givenname: Can orcidid: 0000-0002-1136-792X surname: Wang fullname: Wang, Can email: canwang@tsinghua.edu.cn organization: State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC) School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China – sequence: 3 givenname: Wenjia surname: Cai fullname: Cai, Wenjia organization: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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| SubjectTerms | Economic growth Evolutionary dynamics General equilibrium Technology diffusion |
| Title | Low-carbon technology diffusion and economic growth of China: an evolutionary general equilibrium framework |
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