Low-carbon technology diffusion and economic growth of China: an evolutionary general equilibrium framework

•We proposed an evolutionary general equilibrium framework on new technology diffusion and economic growth.•The framework can capture the nonlinear, path-dependent, and S-shaped technological diffusion process.•Impact of carbon pricing and life expectancy of coal-fired power is analyzed.•A well-desi...

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Vydáno v:Structural change and economic dynamics Ročník 65; s. 253 - 263
Hlavní autoři: An, Kangxin, Wang, Can, Cai, Wenjia
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Elsevier B.V 01.06.2023
Témata:
Economic growth
Evolutionary dynamics
General equilibrium
Technology diffusion
Technology diffusion
Economic growth
Evolutionary dynamics
General equilibrium
ISSN:0954-349X, 1873-6017
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Shrnutí:•We proposed an evolutionary general equilibrium framework on new technology diffusion and economic growth.•The framework can capture the nonlinear, path-dependent, and S-shaped technological diffusion process.•Impact of carbon pricing and life expectancy of coal-fired power is analyzed.•A well-designed policy can bring a win-win future for near-zero emissions of power sector and economic growth of china.•The framework may be insightful for developing the next-generation computable general equilibrium models on structural change of low-carbon technologies. The thorough transition of energy system is required to achieve the Paris Agreement goal. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common tool for estimating the energy transition pathway and the impact of low-carbon policies on economic growth. However, CGE models encounter challenges on modeling diffusion of new technologies. This study proposed a novel evolutionary dynamic general equilibrium model to capture the nonlinear, path-dependent and S-shaped technology diffusion process, and examined the low-carbon transition pathway of power sector and its impact on economic growth of China. We found that imposing a moderate carbon tax and avoiding the over-reliance on coal-fired power could achieve the near-zero emissions of power sector, avoid the large economic loss and hasten the economic growth in the long term. The evolutionary framework may be useful for developing the next-generation model, particularly for simulating the diffusion of new technologies, and their structural effects on economic dynamics.
ISSN:0954-349X
1873-6017
DOI:10.1016/j.strueco.2023.03.001