Distinct changes in the vertical structure of QBO amplitude due to tropical upwelling and wave forcing

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates variability of the equatorial stratosphere and shows a weakening trend in the lower levels in recent studies. This study focuses on the vertical structure of QBO amplitude changes in observation, the dynamic reasons involved, and possible changes under...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental research letters Vol. 20; no. 3; pp. 34014 - 34024
Main Authors: Xu, Wenwen, Ren, Hong-Li
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.03.2025
Subjects:
Amplitudes
Convection
future changes
momentum budget
QBO amplitude
Quasi-biennial oscillation
Stratosphere
tropical upwelling
Upwelling
Vertical oscillations
wave forcing
ISSN:1748-9326, 1748-9326
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates variability of the equatorial stratosphere and shows a weakening trend in the lower levels in recent studies. This study focuses on the vertical structure of QBO amplitude changes in observation, the dynamic reasons involved, and possible changes under future scenarios. The QBO amplitude has an increased trend in the upper levels of stratosphere and a decreased one in the lower during 1960–2022. Results indicate that the QBO amplitude changes are mainly controlled by the tropical upwelling and wave forcing, where the former dampens the lower QBO but the latter primarily maintains the whole QBO amplitude. In addition, the entire QBO could be weakened in the future, responding to the high emission scenario in CMIP6. Under the high scenario, the enhanced tropical upwelling would weaken the amplitude of QBO at lower levels of stratosphere, and meanwhile, the reduced wave forcing, mainly caused by the increased tropospheric stability and weakened convection activity, would make the QBO amplitude maintenance hard.
Bibliography:ERL-119877.R1
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ISSN:1748-9326
1748-9326
DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/adb2a7