Climate change projections of commercial fish distribution and suitable habitat around north western Europe

Under future climate change, modification of temperature and salinity are expected to result in distribution shifts of marine organisms, including commercial fish and shellfish. Changes are anticipated everywhere, including in the seas of many important fishing nations. Species turnover will in turn...

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Published in:	Fish and fisheries (Oxford, England) Vol. 24; no. 5; pp. 848 - 862
Main Authors:	Townhill, Bryony L., Couce, Elena, Tinker, Jonathan, Kay, Susan, Pinnegar, John K.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Oxford Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.09.2023
Subjects:	anchovies climate Climate change Climate models Dicentrarchus labrax Ecological distribution ecological niche model (ENM) Ecological niches Engraulis encrasicolus Fish Fisheries Fishing Gadidae Gadus morhua Habitats marine Marine fishes Marine organisms Niches Pollachius virens salinity Sardina pilchardus sardines Sharks Shellfish Species species turnover temperature uncertainty United Kingdom Western European region United Kingdom > UK Western Europe United Kingdom Western European region
ISSN:	1467-2960, 1467-2979
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Abstract	Under future climate change, modification of temperature and salinity are expected to result in distribution shifts of marine organisms, including commercial fish and shellfish. Changes are anticipated everywhere, including in the seas of many important fishing nations. Species turnover will in turn result in both opportunities and threats to fishing industries. To determine the impacts for northwest European shelf fisheries, we project changes for 49 commercially important fish and shellfish species using an ensemble of five ecological niche models and three different downscaled climate change projections. The habitat suitability and latitudinal shifts projected from the recent past (1997–2016) to two futures (2030–2050; 2050–2070) were calculated for waters around the United Kingdom. Of the species examined, around half were projected to have consistently more suitable habitat in the future, including European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Moronidae), sardine (Sardina pilchardus, Alosidae) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, Engraulidae). Conversely, it is suggested that UK waters will become less suitable for species including Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae) and saithe (Pollachius virens, Gadidae). Our comprehensive approach using a number of models and climate change scenarios shows that while there are differences in the magnitude of change between models, and while some models perform better for certain species compared with others, overall, the general trends in habitat suitability and abundance are robust across models and climate scenarios. This emphasises the value in using more than one modelling technique with different climate scenarios (i.e., an ensemble approach) to capture the uncertainty or agreement around climate change projections.
AbstractList	Under future climate change, modification of temperature and salinity are expected to result in distribution shifts of marine organisms, including commercial fish and shellfish. Changes are anticipated everywhere, including in the seas of many important fishing nations. Species turnover will in turn result in both opportunities and threats to fishing industries. To determine the impacts for northwest European shelf fisheries, we project changes for 49 commercially important fish and shellfish species using an ensemble of five ecological niche models and three different downscaled climate change projections. The habitat suitability and latitudinal shifts projected from the recent past (1997–2016) to two futures (2030–2050; 2050–2070) were calculated for waters around the United Kingdom. Of the species examined, around half were projected to have consistently more suitable habitat in the future, including European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Moronidae), sardine (Sardina pilchardus, Alosidae) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, Engraulidae). Conversely, it is suggested that UK waters will become less suitable for species including Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, Gadidae) and saithe (Pollachius virens, Gadidae). Our comprehensive approach using a number of models and climate change scenarios shows that while there are differences in the magnitude of change between models, and while some models perform better for certain species compared with others, overall, the general trends in habitat suitability and abundance are robust across models and climate scenarios. This emphasises the value in using more than one modelling technique with different climate scenarios (i.e., an ensemble approach) to capture the uncertainty or agreement around climate change projections. Under future climate change, modification of temperature and salinity are expected to result in distribution shifts of marine organisms, including commercial fish and shellfish. Changes are anticipated everywhere, including in the seas of many important fishing nations. Species turnover will in turn result in both opportunities and threats to fishing industries. To determine the impacts for northwest European shelf fisheries, we project changes for 49 commercially important fish and shellfish species using an ensemble of five ecological niche models and three different downscaled climate change projections. The habitat suitability and latitudinal shifts projected from the recent past (1997–2016) to two futures (2030–2050; 2050–2070) were calculated for waters around the United Kingdom. Of the species examined, around half were projected to have consistently more suitable habitat in the future, including European seabass ( Dicentrarchus labrax , Moronidae), sardine ( Sardina pilchardus , Alosidae) and anchovy ( Engraulis encrasicolus , Engraulidae). Conversely, it is suggested that UK waters will become less suitable for species including Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua , Gadidae) and saithe ( Pollachius virens , Gadidae). Our comprehensive approach using a number of models and climate change scenarios shows that while there are differences in the magnitude of change between models, and while some models perform better for certain species compared with others, overall, the general trends in habitat suitability and abundance are robust across models and climate scenarios. This emphasises the value in using more than one modelling technique with different climate scenarios (i.e., an ensemble approach) to capture the uncertainty or agreement around climate change projections.
Author	Couce, Elena Pinnegar, John K. Kay, Susan Townhill, Bryony L. Tinker, Jonathan
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Copyright	2023 Crown copyright and The Authors. published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland. 2023. This article is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
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Snippet	Under future climate change, modification of temperature and salinity are expected to result in distribution shifts of marine organisms, including commercial...
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SubjectTerms	anchovies climate Climate change Climate models Dicentrarchus labrax Ecological distribution ecological niche model (ENM) Ecological niches Engraulis encrasicolus Fish Fisheries Fishing Gadidae Gadus morhua Habitats marine Marine fishes Marine organisms Niches Pollachius virens salinity Sardina pilchardus sardines Sharks Shellfish Species species turnover temperature uncertainty United Kingdom Western European region
Title	Climate change projections of commercial fish distribution and suitable habitat around north western Europe
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