Modeling of energy consumption based on economic and demographic factors: The case of Turkey with projections

Modeling and forecasting of the primary energy consumption (PEC) play a vital role for policy makers and related organizations in developing countries such as Turkey. In this study, Turkey׳s PEC is modeled by regression analysis (RA) based on population (CP) and gross domestic product (GDP). The der...

Celý popis

Uloženo v:
Podrobná bibliografie
Vydáno v:Renewable & sustainable energy reviews Ročník 35; s. 382 - 389
Hlavní autor: Aydin, Gokhan
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.07.2014
Elsevier
Témata:
Applied sciences
Economic data
Energy
Energy economics
Exact sciences and technology
Forecasting
General, economic and professional studies
Methodology. Modelling
Modeling
Primary energy consumption
Regression analysis
Turkey
Asia
Turkey
Turkey
Regression analysis
Modeling
Forecasting
Primary energy consumption
Energy consumption
Script
Economic growth
2025
Demographic evolution
Primary energy
Medium term
ISSN:1364-0321, 1879-0690
On-line přístup:Získat plný text
Tagy: Přidat tag
Žádné tagy, Buďte první, kdo vytvoří štítek k tomuto záznamu!
Popis
Shrnutí:Modeling and forecasting of the primary energy consumption (PEC) play a vital role for policy makers and related organizations in developing countries such as Turkey. In this study, Turkey׳s PEC is modeled by regression analysis (RA) based on population (CP) and gross domestic product (GDP). The derived model is validated by various statistical approaches such as the determination coefficient, t-test, F-test, and residual analysis. Additionally, the performance of the derived model is assessed using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and means absolute error (MAE). Three scenarios are used for forecasting Turkey׳s PEC in the years 2010–2025. For each scenario, various assumptions are made considering different growth rate for CP and GDP. Using the proposed model, Turkey׳ PEC is forecasted under different scenarios. The results show that the proposed model can be affectively used for forecasting of Turkey׳s PEC. The scenarios also show that the future energy consumption of Turkey would vary between 174.65 and 203.13Mtoe in 2025.
Bibliografie:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:1364-0321
1879-0690
DOI:10.1016/j.rser.2014.04.004