Forced and Internal Components of Winter Air Temperature Trends over North America during the past 50 Years Mechanisms and Implications

This study elucidates the physical mechanisms underlying internal and forced components of winter surface air temperature (SAT) trends over North America during the past 50 years (1963–2012) using a combined observational and modeling framework. The modeling framework consists of 30 simulations with...

Full description

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Journal of climate Vol. 29; no. 6; pp. 2237 - 2258
Main Authors:	Deser, Clara, Terray, Laurent, Phillips, Adam S.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Boston American Meteorological Society 15.03.2016
Subjects:	Air temperature Atmospheric circulation Climate change Greenhouse effect Meteorology Simulation Surface temperature Temperature Trends
ISSN:	0894-8755, 1520-0442
Online Access:	Get full text
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

Abstract	This study elucidates the physical mechanisms underlying internal and forced components of winter surface air temperature (SAT) trends over North America during the past 50 years (1963–2012) using a combined observational and modeling framework. The modeling framework consists of 30 simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at 1° latitude–longitude resolution, each of which is subject to an identical scenario of historical radiative forcing but starts from a slightly different atmospheric state. Hence, any spread within the ensemble results from unpredictable internal variability superimposed upon the forced climate change signal. Constructed atmospheric circulation analogs are used to estimate the dynamical contribution to forced and internal components of SAT trends: thermodynamic contributions are obtained as a residual. Internal circulation trends are estimated to account for approximately one-third of the observed wintertime warming trend over North America and more than half locally over parts of Canada and the United States. Removing the effects of internal atmospheric circulation variability narrows the spread of SAT trends within the CESM ensemble and brings the observed trends closer to the model’s radiatively forced response. In addition, removing internal dynamics approximately doubles the signal-to-noise ratio of the simulated SAT trends and substantially advances the “time of emergence” of the forced component of SAT anomalies. The methodological framework proposed here provides a general template for improving physical understanding and interpretation of observed and simulated climate trends worldwide and may help to reconcile the diversity of SAT trends across the models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).
AbstractList	This study elucidates the physical mechanisms underlying internal and forced components of winter surface air temperature (SAT) trends over North America during the past 50 years (1963–2012) using a combined observational and modeling framework. The modeling framework consists of 30 simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at 1° latitude–longitude resolution, each of which is subject to an identical scenario of historical radiative forcing but starts from a slightly different atmospheric state. Hence, any spread within the ensemble results from unpredictable internal variability superimposed upon the forced climate change signal. Constructed atmospheric circulation analogs are used to estimate the dynamical contribution to forced and internal components of SAT trends: thermodynamic contributions are obtained as a residual. Internal circulation trends are estimated to account for approximately one-third of the observed wintertime warming trend over North America and more than half locally over parts of Canada and the United States. Removing the effects of internal atmospheric circulation variability narrows the spread of SAT trends within the CESM ensemble and brings the observed trends closer to the model’s radiatively forced response. In addition, removing internal dynamics approximately doubles the signal-to-noise ratio of the simulated SAT trends and substantially advances the “time of emergence” of the forced component of SAT anomalies. The methodological framework proposed here provides a general template for improving physical understanding and interpretation of observed and simulated climate trends worldwide and may help to reconcile the diversity of SAT trends across the models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This study elucidates the physical mechanisms underlying internal and forced componentsof winter surface air temperature (SAT) trends over North America during the past 50 years (1963-2012) using a combined observational and modeling framework. The modeling framework consists of 30 simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at 18 latitude-longitude resolution, each of which is subject to an identical scenario of historical radiative forcing but starts from a slightly different atmospheric state. Hence, any spread within the ensemble results from unpredictable internal variability superimposed upon the forced climate change signal. Constructed atmospheric circulation analogs are used to estimate the dynamical contribution to forced and internal components of SAT trends: thermodynamic contributions are obtained as a residual. Internal circulation trends are estimated to account for approximately one-third of the observed wintertime warming trend over North America and more than half locally over parts of Canada and the United States. Removing the effects of internal atmospheric circulation variability narrows the spread of SAT trends within the CESM ensemble and brings the observed trends closer to the model's radiatively forced response. In addition, removing internal dynamicsapproximately doubles the signal-to-noise ratioof thesimulated SATtrends and substantiallyadvances the "time of emergence" of the forced component of SAT anomalies. The methodological framework proposed here provides a general template for improving physical understanding and interpretation of observed and simulated climate trends worldwide and may helpto reconcilethe diversity ofSAT trends acrossthe models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).
Author	Terray, Laurent Deser, Clara Phillips, Adam S.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Clara surname: Deser fullname: Deser, Clara organization: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado – sequence: 2 givenname: Laurent surname: Terray fullname: Terray, Laurent organization: Sciences de L’Univers au CERFACS, URA-1875, CERFACS/CNRS, Toulouse, France – sequence: 3 givenname: Adam S. surname: Phillips fullname: Phillips, Adam S. organization: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
BookMark	eNp9kE1rGzEQhkVJoHbSey8FQc-bjqSVdvdonI86mObiEHoSslaq5djSdiQH8u-zxiWHHHoamHmeF-adkrOYoiPkK4Mrxhr5Y2t3oeorJisQUF-xT2TCJIcK6pqfkQm0XV21jZSfyTTnLQDjCmBCnm8TWtdTE3u6iMVhNDs6T_thTI8l0-TpUzju6SwgXbn94NCUAzq6Qhf7EXgZb78Slg2d7R0Ga2h_wBD_0LJxdDC5UAn0tzOYL8m5N7vsvvybF-Tx9mY1_1ktH-4W89myskJ2pVKcu74TXlkuG9E5EI2r65b3vjV23ci1577zfG1VLTsmBPPKC9mCqtfSCyvEBfl-yh0w_T24XPQ2HY6PZc2appEAinUjpU6UxZQzOq9tKKaEFAuasNMM9LFYfT9fLvS1ZlIfi9VsFOGDOGDYG3z9n_LtpGxzSfjOcyVaKToQb872huc
CitedBy_id	crossref_primary_10_1029_2019GL086220 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ab7b98 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_021_00268_7 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_add1f8 crossref_primary_10_1175_JAMC_D_18_0173_1 crossref_primary_10_1029_2021GL095465 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_024_01332_8 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_wace_2024_100717 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41612_024_00686_2 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_adc293 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_020_05278_3 crossref_primary_10_1029_2018GL081316 crossref_primary_10_3390_atmos10050265 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_gloplacha_2024_104544 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41612_024_00648_8 crossref_primary_10_1029_2019JD031977 crossref_primary_10_5194_hess_24_2817_2020 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_atmosres_2024_107391 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_023_01096_7 crossref_primary_10_1002_2017GL075370 crossref_primary_10_1126_sciadv_adq9461 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41467_023_37847_5 crossref_primary_10_1029_2023GL103522 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhydrol_2025_133029 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_gloplacha_2022_103968 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41612_023_00489_x crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_19_0953_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhydrol_2025_133703 crossref_primary_10_1002_2016GL071567 crossref_primary_10_1088_2752_5295_accf30 crossref_primary_10_1002_2016GL071565 crossref_primary_10_1029_2020EF001634 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ad560d crossref_primary_10_1029_2023JD039966 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_018_4343_8 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11430_023_1373_8 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ab76dd crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_018_4305_1 crossref_primary_10_1029_2019MS001639 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ad34e6 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_19_0855_1 crossref_primary_10_1029_2020GL089325 crossref_primary_10_5194_esd_10_91_2019 crossref_primary_10_5194_esd_11_1033_2020 crossref_primary_10_1029_2019GL084154 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_20_0123_1 crossref_primary_10_1002_joc_7024 crossref_primary_10_5194_ascmo_9_83_2023 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41467_018_05256_8 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ad3e8f crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_abe0ec crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_16_0714_1 crossref_primary_10_1002_2016GL069802 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41612_025_01043_7 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_19_0428_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_wace_2023_100616 crossref_primary_10_1017_jog_2019_35 crossref_primary_10_1029_2018WR022792 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_17_0048_1 crossref_primary_10_1080_07055900_2021_1879726 crossref_primary_10_1029_2018GL078312 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_16_0345_1 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_016_3327_9 crossref_primary_10_1073_pnas_2202393119 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_022_06457_0 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_polar_2018_09_002 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41612_023_00389_0 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_20_0578_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_aosl_2023_100334 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_17_0661_1 crossref_primary_10_5194_esd_12_401_2021 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_atmosres_2024_107781 crossref_primary_10_5194_nhess_21_171_2021 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_019_05011_9 crossref_primary_10_5194_tc_17_1913_2023 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_022_06552_2 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41612_024_00886_w crossref_primary_10_1038_s41598_021_97615_7 crossref_primary_10_1007_s40641_019_00146_7 crossref_primary_10_1029_2021MS002565 crossref_primary_10_1038_s44260_025_00048_w crossref_primary_10_1007_s10584_024_03766_7 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10533_025_01263_2 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41612_024_00828_6 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_025_07791_9 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10584_022_03313_2 crossref_primary_10_1007_s10584_023_03670_6 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ac10dd crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_020_05412_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_aosl_2023_100340 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_scitotenv_2022_153817 crossref_primary_10_1029_2023GL106060 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_17_0009_1 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_17_0901_1 crossref_primary_10_3390_rs9090915 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_16_0695_1 crossref_primary_10_5194_esd_11_491_2020 crossref_primary_10_5194_nhess_25_843_2025 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_016_3514_8 crossref_primary_10_1002_2016GL069024 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_21_0656_1 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_abb397 crossref_primary_10_3389_fclim_2022_955414 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_021_06052_9 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_accre_2025_03_003 crossref_primary_10_1029_2021JD036044 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_17_0868_1 crossref_primary_10_5194_acp_24_1641_2024 crossref_primary_10_5194_npg_30_63_2023 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0319210 crossref_primary_10_1002_joc_6881 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_19_1024_1 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_019_04820_2 crossref_primary_10_1088_2515_7620_ae05f6 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ab86f2 crossref_primary_10_1002_2017GL076433 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_wace_2025_100772 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_15_0705_1 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_17_0265_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_atmosres_2024_107248 crossref_primary_10_1029_2021MS002464 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_wace_2022_100523 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_abd586 crossref_primary_10_3389_fclim_2022_991082 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_023_06995_1 crossref_primary_10_1111_1752_1688_12834 crossref_primary_10_1073_pnas_2108124119 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_017_3717_7 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00704_022_04254_7 crossref_primary_10_1029_2020GL087585 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_16_0905_1 crossref_primary_10_1002_asl_1139 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41612_024_00759_2 crossref_primary_10_1029_2019GL086259 crossref_primary_10_1029_2022EF002963 crossref_primary_10_5194_esd_11_807_2020 crossref_primary_10_1002_2018GL077478 crossref_primary_10_2166_wcc_2020_091 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_020_05590_y crossref_primary_10_1029_2023GL103431 crossref_primary_10_1002_qj_4112 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhydrol_2023_130101 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_024_07213_2 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_018_4132_4 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_wace_2025_100785 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_21_0964_1 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_019_04890_2 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhydrol_2025_133414 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ac7734 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_11_5_055001 crossref_primary_10_1038_s43247_024_01582_6 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_16_0792_1 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_18_0780_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_jhydrol_2024_131679 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_18_0238_1 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_gloplacha_2024_104529 crossref_primary_10_1002_wea_3628 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ac06fb crossref_primary_10_1038_s41558_020_0731_2 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00376_024_3288_6 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_18_0882_1 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_017_3914_4 crossref_primary_10_3390_cli7080094 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11802_018_3468_z crossref_primary_10_1002_2017GL076297 crossref_primary_10_1002_2018GL077401 crossref_primary_10_1029_2018GL081080 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_022_06402_1 crossref_primary_10_1038_s41586_024_07985_x crossref_primary_10_1038_s41612_020_0111_7 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_ab7d02 crossref_primary_10_1515_rnam_2025_0008 crossref_primary_10_1002_2017GL076337 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_16_0032_1 crossref_primary_10_1002_2017GL074831 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_atmosres_2024_107506 crossref_primary_10_1029_2021GL095396 crossref_primary_10_1073_pnas_2111875118 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_19_0910_1 crossref_primary_10_5194_acp_24_7347_2024 crossref_primary_10_1029_2021MS002640 crossref_primary_10_1029_2020EF001854 crossref_primary_10_1029_2020EF001610 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_021_05684_1 crossref_primary_10_1088_1748_9326_abd6a9 crossref_primary_10_1007_s00382_021_05718_8 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_gloplacha_2024_104476 crossref_primary_10_1029_2018JD029150
Cites_doi	10.1175/2009JCLI3089.1 10.1007/s10584-014-1112-5 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00241.1 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1 10.1029/2002JD003114 10.5194/cp-5-1-2009 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00830.1 10.1073/pnas.1318371111 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1 10.1002/qj.776 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y 10.1029/2010RG000345 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1 10.1038/nclimate2051 10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x 10.1073/pnas.1204875109 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1 10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034009 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00211.x 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00839.1 10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1023:SCORCP>2.0.CO;2 10.5194/essd-6-61-2014 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00111.1 10.1175/1520-0469(1969)26<636:APARBN>2.0.CO;2 10.1007/s00382-011-1221-z 10.1029/2011GL048712 10.1029/96GL00459 10.1029/2010GL044613 10.1126/science.270.5237.780 10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.t01-2-00006.x 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00218.1 10.1002/2015GL064546 10.1002/grl.50531 10.1175/2009JCLI3420.1 10.1017/CBO9781107415324 10.1038/nclimate1562
ContentType	Journal Article
Copyright	2016 American Meteorological Society Copyright American Meteorological Society Mar 15, 2016
Copyright_xml	– notice: 2016 American Meteorological Society – notice: Copyright American Meteorological Society Mar 15, 2016
DBID	AAYXX CITATION 3V. 7QH 7TG 7UA 7X2 7XB 88F 88I 8AF 8FE 8FG 8FH 8FK 8G5 ABUWG AEUYN AFKRA ARAPS ATCPS AZQEC BEC BENPR BGLVJ BHPHI BKSAR C1K CCPQU DWQXO F1W GNUQQ GUQSH H96 HCIFZ KL. L.G M0K M1Q M2O M2P MBDVC P5Z P62 PATMY PCBAR PHGZM PHGZT PKEHL PQEST PQGLB PQQKQ PQUKI PYCSY Q9U S0X
DOI	10.1175/jcli-d-15-0304.1
DatabaseName	CrossRef ProQuest Central (Corporate) Aqualine Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts Water Resources Abstracts Agricultural Science Collection ProQuest Central (purchase pre-March 2016) Military Database (Alumni Edition) Science Database (Alumni Edition) STEM Database ProQuest SciTech Collection ProQuest Technology Collection ProQuest Natural Science Collection ProQuest Central (Alumni) (purchase pre-March 2016) ProQuest Research Library ProQuest Central (Alumni) ProQuest One Sustainability ProQuest Central UK/Ireland Advanced Technologies & Computer Science Collection Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection ProQuest Central Essentials eLibrary Proquest Central Technology Collection Natural Science Collection Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management ProQuest One ProQuest Central Korea ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts ProQuest Central Student ProQuest Research Library Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources SciTech Premium Collection Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional Agriculture Science Database Military Database Research Library Science Database Research Library (Corporate) Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection Environmental Science Database Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database ProQuest Central Premium ProQuest One Academic (New) ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New) ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition (DO NOT USE) ProQuest One Applied & Life Sciences ProQuest One Academic (retired) ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition Environmental Science Collection ProQuest Central Basic SIRS Editorial
DatabaseTitle	CrossRef Agricultural Science Database Research Library Prep ProQuest Central Student ProQuest Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection ProQuest Central Essentials elibrary ProQuest AP Science SciTech Premium Collection ProQuest Military Collection Water Resources Abstracts Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management ProQuest One Applied & Life Sciences ProQuest One Sustainability Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts Natural Science Collection ProQuest Central (New) Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Collection ProQuest Science Journals (Alumni Edition) ProQuest One Academic Eastern Edition Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database Agricultural Science Collection ProQuest Technology Collection Aqualine Environmental Science Collection ProQuest One Academic UKI Edition Environmental Science Database ProQuest One Academic Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts - Academic ProQuest One Academic (New) Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) Professional Technology Collection ProQuest One Academic Middle East (New) SIRS Editorial ProQuest Central (Alumni Edition) ProQuest One Community College Research Library (Alumni Edition) ProQuest Natural Science Collection ProQuest Central Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Collection ProQuest Central Korea Agricultural & Environmental Science Collection ProQuest Research Library ProQuest Central Basic ProQuest Science Journals ProQuest Military Collection (Alumni Edition) ProQuest SciTech Collection Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA) 2: Ocean Technology, Policy & Non-Living Resources ASFA: Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Abstracts ProQuest Central (Alumni)
DatabaseTitleList	CrossRef Agricultural Science Database
Database_xml	– sequence: 1 dbid: BENPR name: ProQuest Central url: https://www.proquest.com/central sourceTypes: Aggregation Database
DeliveryMethod	fulltext_linktorsrc
Discipline	Meteorology & Climatology
EISSN	1520-0442
EndPage	2258
ExternalDocumentID	4005924701 10_1175_JCLI_D_15_0304_1 26385390
Genre	Feature
GroupedDBID	-~X 29K 2WC 4.4 5GY 7X2 7XC 85S 88I 8AF 8FE 8FG 8FH 8G5 8R4 8R5 AAEFR AAFWJ ABBHK ABDBF ABDNZ ABUFD ABUWG ABXSQ ACGFO ACGOD ACIHN ACUHS ADULT AEAQA AEKFB AENEX AEUPB AEUYN AFFHD AFKRA AFRAH AGFAN AGGLG ALMA_UNASSIGNED_HOLDINGS ALQLQ APEBS ARAPS ATCPS AZQEC BANNL BCU BEC BENPR BES BGLVJ BHPHI BKSAR BLC BPHCQ CCPQU CS3 D-I D1K DU5 DWQXO E3Z EAD EAP EAS EAU EBS EDH EJD EMK EPL EST ESX F5P F8P FRP GNUQQ GUQSH H13 HCIFZ H~9 I-F IZHOT JAAYA JENOY JKQEH JLEZI JLXEF JPL JST K6- LK5 M0K M1Q M2O M2P M2Q M7R MV1 OK1 P2P P62 PATMY PCBAR PHGZM PHGZT PQGLB PQQKQ PROAC PYCSY Q2X QF4 QM9 QN7 QO4 RWA RWE RWL RXW S0X SA0 SJFOW SWMRO TAE TN5 TR2 TUS U5U UNMZH ~02 AAYXX CITATION 3V. 7QH 7TG 7UA 7XB 8FK AIFVT C1K F1W H96 KL. L.G MBDVC PKEHL PQEST PQUKI Q9U XJT
ID	FETCH-LOGICAL-c359t-622ed93f6c25739e037e4482df8acb75bf2f9f2bc64591331f6f358064b5f3c33
IEDL.DBID	M2P
ISICitedReferencesCount	256
ISICitedReferencesURI	http://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=Summon&SrcAuth=ProQuest&DestLinkType=CitingArticles&DestApp=WOS_CPL&KeyUT=000375786600016&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D
ISSN	0894-8755
IngestDate	Sat Aug 16 06:22:36 EDT 2025 Sat Nov 29 04:57:49 EST 2025 Tue Nov 18 22:43:01 EST 2025 Wed Dec 10 12:30:45 EST 2025
IsDoiOpenAccess	false
IsOpenAccess	true
IsPeerReviewed	true
IsScholarly	true
Issue	6
Language	English
LinkModel	DirectLink
MergedId	FETCHMERGED-LOGICAL-c359t-622ed93f6c25739e037e4482df8acb75bf2f9f2bc64591331f6f358064b5f3c33
Notes	SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 14
PQID	1777500619
PQPubID	32902
PageCount	22
ParticipantIDs	proquest_journals_1777500619 crossref_citationtrail_10_1175_JCLI_D_15_0304_1 crossref_primary_10_1175_JCLI_D_15_0304_1 jstor_primary_26385390
PublicationCentury	2000
PublicationDate	20160315
PublicationDateYYYYMMDD	2016-03-15
PublicationDate_xml	– month: 03 year: 2016 text: 20160315 day: 15
PublicationDecade	2010
PublicationPlace	Boston
PublicationPlace_xml	– name: Boston
PublicationTitle	Journal of climate
PublicationYear	2016
Publisher	American Meteorological Society
Publisher_xml	– name: American Meteorological Society
References	Hoerling (2020061319105199100_bib14) 2010; 23 Zorita (2020061319105199100_bib42) 1995; 8 Wallace (2020061319105199100_bib38) 1995; 270 Abatzoglou (2020061319105199100_bib1) 2014; 27 Hu (2020061319105199100_bib15) 2013; 40 Monier (2020061319105199100_bib25) 2015; 131 Thompson (2020061319105199100_bib32) 2015; 28 Thompson (2020061319105199100_bib31) 2009; 22 Van den Dool (2020061319105199100_bib34) 1994; 46A Smoliak (2020061319105199100_bib28) 2015; 28 Ting (2020061319105199100_bib33) 2011; 38 Hawkins (2020061319105199100_bib12) 2009; 90 Deser (2020061319105199100_bib8) 2014; 27 Compo (2020061319105199100_bib4) 2011; 137 IPCC (2020061319105199100_bib18) 2013 Wallace (2020061319105199100_bib39) 2012; 109 Wallace (2020061319105199100_bib40) 2014 Osborn (2020061319105199100_bib26) 2014; 6 Hansen (2020061319105199100_bib11) 2010; 48 Hegerl (2020061319105199100_bib13) 2007 Johnstone (2020061319105199100_bib19) 2014; 111 Sriver (2020061319105199100_bib29) 2015; 42 Vose (2020061319105199100_bib37) 2012; 93 Hurrell (2020061319105199100_bib16) 1996; 23 Kelley (2020061319105199100_bib21) 2012; 38 Deser (2020061319105199100_bib6) 2012; 2 IPCC (2020061319105199100_bib17) 2007 Wettstein (2020061319105199100_bib41) 2014; 27 Van den Dool (2020061319105199100_bib35) 2003; 108 Mahlstein (2020061319105199100_bib23) 2011; 6 Cattiaux (2020061319105199100_bib3) 2010; 37 Meehl (2020061319105199100_bib24) 2013; 26 Lorenz (2020061319105199100_bib22) 1969; 26 Fischer (2020061319105199100_bib10) 2013; 3 Taylor (2020061319105199100_bib30) 2012; 93 Diffenbaugh (2020061319105199100_bib9) 2011; 107 Hawkins (2020061319105199100_bib43) 2015 Van Oldenborgh (2020061319105199100_bib36) 2009; 5 Kay (2020061319105199100_bib20) 2015; 96 Deser (2020061319105199100_bib7) 2012; 38 Räisänen (2020061319105199100_bib27) 2007; 59A
References_xml	– volume: 22 start-page: 6120 year: 2009 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib31 article-title: Identifying signatures of natural climate variability in time series of global-mean surface temperature: Methodology and insights publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3089.1 – volume: 131 start-page: 51 year: 2015 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib25 article-title: A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change publication-title: Climatic Change doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1112-5 – volume: 93 start-page: 1677 year: 2012 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib37 article-title: NOAA’s Merged Land–Ocean Surface Temperature Analysis publication-title: Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00241.1 – volume: 27 start-page: 2271 year: 2014 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib8 article-title: Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1 – volume: 108 start-page: 8617 year: 2003 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib35 article-title: Performance and analysis of the constructed analogue method applied to U.S. soil moisture over 1981–2001 publication-title: J. Geophys. Res. doi: 10.1029/2002JD003114 – volume: 5 start-page: 1 year: 2009 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib36 article-title: Western Europe is warming much faster than expected publication-title: Climate Past doi: 10.5194/cp-5-1-2009 – volume: 28 start-page: 6443 year: 2015 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib32 article-title: Quantifying the role of internal climate variability in future climate trends publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00830.1 – year: 2014 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib40 – volume: 111 start-page: 14 360 year: 2014 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib19 article-title: Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change, 1900–2012 publication-title: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA doi: 10.1073/pnas.1318371111 – volume: 26 start-page: 7298 year: 2013 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib24 article-title: Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1 – volume: 137 start-page: 1 year: 2011 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib4 article-title: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project publication-title: Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. doi: 10.1002/qj.776 – volume: 93 start-page: 485 year: 2012 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib30 article-title: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design publication-title: Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 – volume: 107 start-page: 615 year: 2011 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib9 article-title: Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries publication-title: Climatic Change doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0112-y – volume: 48 start-page: RG4004 year: 2010 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib11 article-title: Global surface temperature change publication-title: Rev. Geophys. doi: 10.1029/2010RG000345 – volume: 90 start-page: 1095 year: 2009 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib12 article-title: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions publication-title: Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1 – volume: 3 start-page: 1033 year: 2013 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib10 article-title: Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes publication-title: Nat. Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate2051 – volume: 38 start-page: 527 year: 2012 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib7 article-title: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability publication-title: Climate Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x – volume: 109 start-page: 14 337 year: 2012 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib39 article-title: Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season publication-title: Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204875109 – volume: 96 start-page: 1333 year: 2015 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib20 article-title: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability publication-title: Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1 – volume: 6 start-page: 031002 year: 2011 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib23 article-title: Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries publication-title: Environ. Res. Lett. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034009 – volume: 59A start-page: 2 year: 2007 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib27 article-title: How reliable are climate models? publication-title: Tellus doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00211.x – volume: 27 start-page: 527 year: 2014 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib41 article-title: Internal variability in projections of twenty-first-century Arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00839.1 – volume: 8 start-page: 1023 year: 1995 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib42 article-title: Stochastic characterization of regional circulation patterns for climate model diagnosis and estimation of local precipitation publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1023:SCORCP>2.0.CO;2 – volume: 6 start-page: 61 year: 2014 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib26 article-title: The CRUTEM4 land-surface air temperature data set: Construction, previous versions and dissemination via Google Earth publication-title: Earth Syst. Sci. Data doi: 10.5194/essd-6-61-2014 – volume: 28 start-page: 1613 year: 2015 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib28 article-title: Dynamical adjustment of the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature field: Methodology and application to observations publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00111.1 – volume: 26 start-page: 636 year: 1969 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib22 article-title: Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues publication-title: J. Atmos. Sci. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1969)26<636:APARBN>2.0.CO;2 – volume: 38 start-page: 2001 year: 2012 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib21 article-title: The relative contributions of radiative forcing and internal climate variability to the late 20th Century drying of the Mediterranean region publication-title: Climate Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1221-z – volume: 38 start-page: L17705 year: 2011 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib33 article-title: Robust features of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and its climate impacts publication-title: Geophys. Res. Lett. doi: 10.1029/2011GL048712 – volume: 23 start-page: 665 year: 1996 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib16 article-title: Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature publication-title: Geophys. Res. Lett. doi: 10.1029/96GL00459 – volume: 37 start-page: L20704 year: 2010 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib3 article-title: Winter in 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate publication-title: Geophys. Res. Lett. doi: 10.1029/2010GL044613 – volume: 270 start-page: 780 year: 1995 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib38 article-title: Dynamic contribution to hemispheric mean temperature trends publication-title: Science doi: 10.1126/science.270.5237.780 – start-page: 1 year: 2015 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib43 article-title: Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections publication-title: Climate Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8 – year: 2007 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib13 – volume: 46A start-page: 314 year: 1994 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib34 article-title: Searching for analogues, how long must one wait? publication-title: Tellus doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.t01-2-00006.x – volume: 27 start-page: 2125 year: 2014 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib1 article-title: Seasonal climate variability and change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00218.1 – year: 2007 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib17 – volume: 42 start-page: 5468 year: 2015 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib29 article-title: Effects of initial conditions uncertainty on regional climate variability: An analysis using a low-resolution CESM ensemble publication-title: Geophys. Res. Lett. doi: 10.1002/2015GL064546 – volume: 40 start-page: 2768 year: 2013 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib15 article-title: Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability publication-title: Geophys. Res. Lett. doi: 10.1002/grl.50531 – volume: 23 start-page: 2131 year: 2010 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib14 article-title: Regional precipitation trends: Distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic forcing publication-title: J. Climate doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3420.1 – year: 2013 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib18 article-title: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis doi: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324 – volume: 2 start-page: 775 year: 2012 ident: 2020061319105199100_bib6 article-title: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate publication-title: Nat. Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate1562
SSID	ssj0012600
Score	2.6108575
Snippet	This study elucidates the physical mechanisms underlying internal and forced components of winter surface air temperature (SAT) trends over North America... This study elucidates the physical mechanisms underlying internal and forced componentsof winter surface air temperature (SAT) trends over North America during...
SourceID	proquest crossref jstor
SourceType	Aggregation Database Enrichment Source Index Database Publisher
StartPage	2237
SubjectTerms	Air temperature Atmospheric circulation Climate change Greenhouse effect Meteorology Simulation Surface temperature Temperature Trends
Subtitle	Mechanisms and Implications
Title	Forced and Internal Components of Winter Air Temperature Trends over North America during the past 50 Years
URI	https://www.jstor.org/stable/26385390 https://www.proquest.com/docview/1777500619
Volume	29
WOSCitedRecordID	wos000375786600016&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com%2F%23%21%2Fsearch%3Fho%3Df%26include.ft.matches%3Dt%26l%3Dnull%26q%3D
hasFullText	1
inHoldings	1
isFullTextHit
isPrint
journalDatabaseRights	– providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: Advanced Technologies & Aerospace Database customDbUrl: eissn: 1520-0442 dateEnd: 20231212 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0012600 issn: 0894-8755 databaseCode: P5Z dateStart: 20050101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://search.proquest.com/hightechjournals providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: Agriculture Science Database customDbUrl: eissn: 1520-0442 dateEnd: 20231212 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0012600 issn: 0894-8755 databaseCode: M0K dateStart: 20050101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://search.proquest.com/agriculturejournals providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: Earth, Atmospheric & Aquatic Science Database customDbUrl: eissn: 1520-0442 dateEnd: 20231212 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0012600 issn: 0894-8755 databaseCode: PCBAR dateStart: 20050101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://search.proquest.com/eaasdb providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: Environmental Science Database customDbUrl: eissn: 1520-0442 dateEnd: 20231212 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0012600 issn: 0894-8755 databaseCode: PATMY dateStart: 20050101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: http://search.proquest.com/environmentalscience providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: Military Database customDbUrl: eissn: 1520-0442 dateEnd: 20231212 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0012600 issn: 0894-8755 databaseCode: M1Q dateStart: 20050101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://search.proquest.com/military providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: ProQuest Central customDbUrl: eissn: 1520-0442 dateEnd: 20231212 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0012600 issn: 0894-8755 databaseCode: BENPR dateStart: 20050101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://www.proquest.com/central providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: Research Library customDbUrl: eissn: 1520-0442 dateEnd: 20231212 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0012600 issn: 0894-8755 databaseCode: M2O dateStart: 20050101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://search.proquest.com/pqrl providerName: ProQuest – providerCode: PRVPQU databaseName: Science Database customDbUrl: eissn: 1520-0442 dateEnd: 20231212 omitProxy: false ssIdentifier: ssj0012600 issn: 0894-8755 databaseCode: M2P dateStart: 20050101 isFulltext: true titleUrlDefault: https://search.proquest.com/sciencejournals providerName: ProQuest
link	http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMwpV3db9MwELdg44EXGB8ThW26B4TEg2nt1EnNC9q6VXy1BDTE2IsVO7ZUqTQlKfwN_Nm7c9ICQtoLL5aiOEqi8939fPfzHWNPi4CCLq3kVIuKD7VHlRqVngcrEp8WNlWqbTaRzWajiwuddwG3pqNVbmxiNNRl5ShG3hdZhs4NvY9-tfrOqWsUZVe7Fho32S4iG0GUrqnMt1kEKr4eUaQeotYrtU1Tqv7b8fs3_JQLxSk3-EL85ZZaZuI_1jm6nMnd__3YPXanA5tw3K6Oe-yGX95nvSni5KqO4XR4BuPFHEFrvHrAfk2q2vkSimUJXaxwAWQyqiURLqAK8IUKTNRwPK_h3CPmbmsyQ8utBSKEQswFQZcLgvYgJCDQhFXRrEEN4CuqV_MSpp6OHc-bb037wj_I7Q_Z58nZ-fg173o1cJcoveaplL7USUgd2oBE-0GSedz5yTKMCmczZYMMOkjrqHgN7otFSANlYNOhVSFxSbLPdpb4L48YZIWQwfthSEeUEy20Vaq0oUCAnTp8R4_1N6IyritkTv00FiZuaDJlSLjm1AhlSLhG9Njz7ROrtojHNXP3o_S3EyVaKJXoQY8dbGRtOj1vzG9BP77-9hN2G6FWSuw1oQ7Yzrr-4Q_ZLfdzPW_qI7Z7cjbLPx3h8h28o1F8pFF-iGOOY64urwBQ3_qR
linkProvider	ProQuest
linkToHtml	http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMw1V1bb9MwFLamgQQv3CcKA84DIPFgWjtxUk9CaGqpVtZWeyhiPHmJY0uVSlOSAuIf7NfsN-6cXAoIaW974DGKIyvOl3Px9_kcxl4mHj90lkpOtah4qB3-Uv3McZ-KwEVJGilVN5uIZ7P-6ak-2WEX7VkYklW2NrEy1FluaY-8K-IYnRt6H_1-_Y1T1yhiV9sWGjUsjt2vn5iyle_GQ_y-r6QcfZgPjnjTVYDbQOkNj6R0mQ58ZBGtgXa9IHaYo8jM9xObxir10msvU0tlVjCDEz7yxBVGYap8YGkDFE3-jZAqi5FUUJ5sWQsq9l5FrTpEK6PUlhZV3Y-DyZgPuVCcuMi34i83WCsh__EGlYsb3f3fFuceu9ME03BYo_8-23GrB6wzxTwgLyq6AF7DYLnAoLy6esjOR3lhXQbJKoNmL3QJZBLzFQlKIPfwmQpoFHC4KGDuMKeoa05DrR0GErxCxXVBw3VBfdATMJCGdVJuQPXgCy5FeQBTR8eqF-XXsp7wD_H-I_bpWhZmj-2u8F0eM4gTIb1zoY_6xPkmOlUqS32CCURkcY4O67bQMLYp1E79QpamSthiZQhMZmiEMgQmIzrszfaJdV2k5IqxexXatgMlWmAV6F6H7bfYMo0dK81vYD25-vYLdutoPp2YyXh2_JTdxrAyIqWeUPtsd1N8d8_YTftjsyiL59UvA-zsumF4CVNIUQY
linkToPdf	http://cvtisr.summon.serialssolutions.com/2.0.0/link/0/eLvHCXMw1V1db9MwFLWmgRAvfE8UBtwHQOLBtHHqpJ6E0NRSUbZVfRhi8OLFji1VKk1JuiH-wX4Tv457naSAkPa2Bx6jJIpiH98Pn-N7GXueeZzo3AhOtah4XzlcUoPccW-i2CWZSaSsm02k0-ng5ETNttjP9iwMySpbmxgMdV5Y2iPvRmmKzg29j-r6RhYxG43frr5x6iBFTGvbTqOGyIH78R3Tt-rNZIRz_UKI8bvj4XvedBjgNpZqzRMhXK5in1hEbqxcL04d5isi94PMmlQaL7zywlgquYLZXOQTT7xh0jfSx5Y2Q9H8X0sxxyQ54Ux-2TAYVPg9RLCqjxZHyg1FKrsfhocTPuKR5MRLvo7-com1KvIfzxDc3fj2_zxQd9itJsiG_XpV3GVbbnmPdY4wPyjKQCPASxgu5hish6v77GJclNblkC1zaPZIF0CmsliS0AQKD5-osEYJ-_MSjh3mGnUtaqg1xUBCWAgcGDQcGNQHQAEDbFhl1RpkDz7jUFR7cOTouPW8-lrVH_xD1P-AfbySgdlh20v8l4cM0iwS3rm-TwbEBWfKSJkbn2FikVj8Rod1W5ho2xRwpz4iCx0SuVRqApYe6UhqApaOOuzV5o1VXbzkkmd3AvI2Dwq0zDJWvQ7bbXGmG_tW6d8ge3T57WfsBqJPH06mB4_ZTYw2ExLwRXKXba_LM_eEXbfn63lVPg2rB9jpVaPwF75sWfI
openUrl	ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fsummon.serialssolutions.com&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.atitle=Forced+and+Internal+Components+of+Winter+Air+Temperature+Trends+over+North+America+during+the+past+50+Years%3A+Mechanisms+and+Implications&rft.jtitle=Journal+of+climate&rft.au=Deser%2C+Clara&rft.au=Terray%2C+Laurent&rft.au=Phillips%2C+Adam+S.&rft.date=2016-03-15&rft.issn=0894-8755&rft.eissn=1520-0442&rft.volume=29&rft.issue=6&rft.spage=2237&rft.epage=2258&rft_id=info:doi/10.1175%2FJCLI-D-15-0304.1&rft.externalDBID=n%2Fa&rft.externalDocID=10_1175_JCLI_D_15_0304_1
thumbnail_l	http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/lc.gif&issn=0894-8755&client=summon
thumbnail_m	http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/mc.gif&issn=0894-8755&client=summon
thumbnail_s	http://covers-cdn.summon.serialssolutions.com/index.aspx?isbn=/sc.gif&issn=0894-8755&client=summon