A multi-type multi-occurrence hazard lifecycle cost analysis framework for infrastructure management decision making

•Infrastructures are vulnerable against multiple occurrences of multiple types of hazards.•Their vulnerability increases if they are not repaired by the time of next hazards.•The proposed framework incorporates effects of prior damage and repair times on future performance of systems.•It employs a r...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Engineering structures Vol. 167; pp. 504 - 517
Main Authors: Fereshtehnejad, Ehsan, Shafieezadeh, Abdollah
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 15.07.2018
Elsevier BV
Subjects:
Cost analysis
Decision analysis
Decision making
Earthquake damage
Earthquakes
Geological hazards
Hazards
Impact damage
Infrastructure
Life cycle analysis
Life cycle costs
Lifecycle cost analysisw
Multiple hazard occurrences
Multiple types of hazards
Optimal retrofit decision-making
Recursive algorithm
Recursive algorithms
Repair time
Repair time variation
Seismic activity
Seismic hazard
Optimal retrofit decision-making
Lifecycle cost analysisw
Repair time variation
Recursive algorithm
Multiple hazard occurrences
Multiple types of hazards
ISSN:0141-0296, 1873-7323
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:•Infrastructures are vulnerable against multiple occurrences of multiple types of hazards.•Their vulnerability increases if they are not repaired by the time of next hazards.•The proposed framework incorporates effects of prior damage and repair times on future performance of systems.•It employs a recursive algorithm to effectively incorporate uncertainties from various sources.•Impacts of considering prior damage and repair time variations are shown for a realistic bridge. Infrastructure systems, especially in hazard-prone regions, may face multiple occurrences of multiple types of hazards during their lifetime. The type and intensity of the hazards and impacts on systems can vary from one event to another. An important factor that has yet to be properly addressed in natural hazard loss estimation models is the impact of damage induced by various types of prior events on the increased vulnerability of systems against various types of potential future hazards. This paper presents a new hazard lifecycle cost analysis framework that addresses this gap and accounts for effects of incomplete repairs of damage conditions induced by prior natural hazards on the future hazard performance of systems. Considering that the space of scenarios for multi-hazard occurrences and the impacts over the lifetime of infrastructure systems is significantly large, a recursive algorithm is proposed to efficiently determine the lifecycle cost of the system. This framework is applied to a realistic bridge exposed to flood and earthquake hazards to determine the optimal retrofit plan that reduces the overall lifecycle cost of the bridge. Results show the significance of considering different damage types induced by multiple types of hazards and repair time variations for lifecycle cost analysis of infrastructure systems.
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ISSN:0141-0296
1873-7323
DOI:10.1016/j.engstruct.2018.04.049