Non-expert interpretations of hurricane forecast uncertainty visualizations

Uncertainty represented in visualizations is often ignored or misunderstood by the non-expert user. The National Hurricane Center displays hurricane forecasts using a track forecast cone, depicting the expected track of the storm and the uncertainty in the forecast. Our goal was to test whether diff...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Spatial cognition and computation Vol. 16; no. 2; pp. 154 - 172
Main Authors: Ruginski, Ian T., Boone, Alexander P., Padilla, Lace M., Liu, Le, Heydari, Nahal, Kramer, Heidi S., Hegarty, Mary, Thompson, William B., House, Donald H., Creem-Regehr, Sarah H.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis 02.04.2016
Subjects:
BASIC (programming language)
decision making
Displays
hurricane prediction
Hurricanes
Storms
Tracking
Uncertainty
Visual
Visualization
ISSN:1387-5868, 1542-7633
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Uncertainty represented in visualizations is often ignored or misunderstood by the non-expert user. The National Hurricane Center displays hurricane forecasts using a track forecast cone, depicting the expected track of the storm and the uncertainty in the forecast. Our goal was to test whether different graphical displays of a hurricane forecast containing uncertainty would influence a decision about storm characteristics. Participants viewed one of five different visualization types. Three varied the currently used forecast cone, one presented a track with no uncertainty, and one presented an ensemble of multiple possible hurricane tracks. Results show that individuals make different decisions using uncertainty visualizations with different visual properties, demonstrating that basic visual properties must be considered in visualization design and communication.
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ISSN:1387-5868
1542-7633
DOI:10.1080/13875868.2015.1137577