Planning regional ecosystem sustainability under multiple uncertainties—An interval stochastic credibility-constrained programming approach

•An interval stochastic credibility-constrained programming (ISCP) method is developed.•ISCP method can tack multiple uncertainties in ecosystem sustainability management.•ISCP is applied to planning ecosystem sustainable development for Dongying (China).•Results show that uncertainty has an importa...

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Vydáno v:Ecological indicators Ročník 70; s. 134 - 150
Hlavní autoři: Zhang, K., Li, Y.P., Huang, G.H., Jin, S.W.
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Elsevier Ltd 01.11.2016
Témata:
China
Credibility-constrained
Ecosystem
ecosystem services
ecosystems
industry
Modeling
Multiple uncertainties
oil fields
Planning
probability distribution
runoff
Sustainability
sustainable development
uncertainty
China
Multiple uncertainties
Planning
Modeling
Ecosystem
Sustainability
Credibility-constrained
ISSN:1470-160X, 1872-7034
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Shrnutí:•An interval stochastic credibility-constrained programming (ISCP) method is developed.•ISCP method can tack multiple uncertainties in ecosystem sustainability management.•ISCP is applied to planning ecosystem sustainable development for Dongying (China).•Results show that uncertainty has an important role in planning regional ecosystem.•Results help formulate the optimal regional ecosystem sustainability strategies. Inherent uncertainties in regional ecosystems can affect the modeling processes and the relevant results for managing and planning the real-world problems. In this study, an interval stochastic credibility-constrained programming (ISCP) method is developed for tacking multiple uncertainties expressed as intervals, fuzzy sets and probability distributions. The ISCP method is applied to planning regional ecosystem sustainability in the City of Dongying (China), in which ecosystem services valuation approach is directly incorporated within the optimization processes. Results associated with credibility levels of resources availability and the effects of sensitive ecological factors on the ecosystem services and ecological benefit are analyzed. Results show that a tighter limitation of ecological resources availability could cause lower economic development, particularly for oil field and oil refinery industries. Tradeoffs among social, economic and natural subsystems are also examined under different credibility levels, which are provided for generating optimal strategies in supporting of balancing the city’s economic and ecological sustainable development. Results of sensitivity analysis reveal that runoff coefficient is one of the most sensitive ecological factors in the process of calculating the ecological benefit. The findings can provide scientific bases for the integration of economic and ecological activities as well as the development of regional ecosystem-sustainability strategies.
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ISSN:1470-160X
1872-7034
DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.06.007