Coastal Sea Level Observations Record the Twentieth-Century Enhancement of Decadal Climate Variability

Changes in the amplitude of decadal climate variability over the twentieth century have been noted, with most evidence derived from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records. However, the length, spatial coverage, and stability of most instrumental records are insufficient to robustly identif...

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Vydané v:	Journal of climate Ročník 36; číslo 1; s. 243 - 260
Hlavný autor:	Little, Christopher M.
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	Boston American Meteorological Society 01.01.2023
Predmet:	20th century Amplitude Amplitudes Atmospheric pressure Atmospheric variability Climate Climate prediction Climate variability Coastal waters Coasts Coherence decadal variability Drought ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Equatorial winds Gauges Heat Heat flux Heat transfer interannual variability Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences multidecadal variability oscillations Regions Sea level Sea level variability Sea surface temperature Sea surface temperature variability Sparsity Surface temperature Temperature Temperature variability Tide gauges Tides Time series Trends Variability Variables Wave propagation Waveguides Wind stress Winds United States > US
ISSN:	0894-8755, 1520-0442
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Shrnutí:	Changes in the amplitude of decadal climate variability over the twentieth century have been noted, with most evidence derived from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records. However, the length, spatial coverage, and stability of most instrumental records are insufficient to robustly identify such nonstationarity, or resolve its global spatial structure. Here, it is found that the long-term, stable, observing platform provided by tide gauges reveals a dramatic increase in the amplitude and spatial coherence of decadal (11–14-yr period) coastal sea level ( ζ ) variability between 1960 and 2000. During this epoch, western North American ζ was approximately out of phase with ζ in Sydney, Australia, and led northeastern U.S. ζ by approximately 1–2 years. The amplitude and timing of changes in decadal ζ variability in these regions are consistent with changes in atmospheric variability. Specifically, central equatorial Pacific wind stress and Labrador Sea heat flux are highly coherent and exhibit contemporaneous, order-of-magnitude increases in decadal power. These statistical relationships have a mechanistic underpinning: Along the western North American coastline, equatorial winds are known to drive rapidly propagating ζ signals along equatorial and coastal waveguides, while a 1–2-yr lag between Labrador Sea heat fluxes and northeastern United States ζ is consistent with a remotely forced, buoyancy-driven, mechanism. Tide gauges thus provide strong independent support for an increase in interbasin coherence on decadal time scales over the second half of the twentieth century, with implications for both the interpretation and prediction of climate and sea level variability.
Bibliografia:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 NONE National Science Foundation (NSF) USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
ISSN:	0894-8755 1520-0442
DOI:	10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0451.1