Climate drives fire synchrony but local factors control fire regime change in northern Mexico

The occurrence of wildfire is influenced by a suite of factors ranging from “top‐down” influences (e.g., climate) to “bottom‐up” localized influences (e.g., ignitions, fuels, and land use). We carried out the first broad‐scale assessment of wildland fire patterns in northern Mexico to assess the rel...

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Published in:	Ecosphere (Washington, D.C) Vol. 8; no. 3
Main Authors:	Yocom Kent, Larissa L., Fulé, Peter Z., Brown, Peter M., Cerano‐Paredes, Julián, Cornejo‐Oviedo, Eladio, Cortés Montaño, Citlali, Drury, Stacy A., Falk, Donald A., Meunier, Jed, Poulos, Helen M., Skinner, Carl N., Stephens, Scott L., Villanueva‐Díaz, José
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.03.2017
Subjects:	20th century Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation climate Climate change dendrochronology Drought Ecosystems El Nino El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Environmental changes fire history fire regime fire scars Forest & brush fires Influence Land use Livestock Mexico Pacific Decadal Oscillation Southern Oscillation synchrony Topography Wildfires Mexico United States > US North America Arizona
ISSN:	2150-8925, 2150-8925
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Abstract	The occurrence of wildfire is influenced by a suite of factors ranging from “top‐down” influences (e.g., climate) to “bottom‐up” localized influences (e.g., ignitions, fuels, and land use). We carried out the first broad‐scale assessment of wildland fire patterns in northern Mexico to assess the relative influence of top‐down and bottom‐up drivers of fire in a region where frequent fire regimes continued well into the 20th century. Using a network of 67 sites, we assessed (1) fire synchrony and the scales at which synchrony is evident, (2) climate drivers of fire, and (3) asynchrony in fire regime changes. We found high fire synchrony across northern Mexico between 1750 and 2008, with synchrony highest at distances <400 km. Climate oscillations, especially El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, were important drivers of fire synchrony. However, bottom‐up factors modified fire occurrence at smaller spatial scales, with variable local influence on the timing of abrupt, unusually long fire‐free periods starting between 1887 and 1979 CE. Thirty sites lacked these fire‐free periods. In contrast to the neighboring southwestern United States, many ecosystems in northern Mexico maintain frequent fire regimes and intact fire–climate relationships that are useful in understanding climate influences on disturbance across scales of space and time.
AbstractList	The occurrence of wildfire is influenced by a suite of factors ranging from “top‐down” influences (e.g., climate) to “bottom‐up” localized influences (e.g., ignitions, fuels, and land use). We carried out the first broad‐scale assessment of wildland fire patterns in northern Mexico to assess the relative influence of top‐down and bottom‐up drivers of fire in a region where frequent fire regimes continued well into the 20th century. Using a network of 67 sites, we assessed (1) fire synchrony and the scales at which synchrony is evident, (2) climate drivers of fire, and (3) asynchrony in fire regime changes. We found high fire synchrony across northern Mexico between 1750 and 2008, with synchrony highest at distances <400 km. Climate oscillations, especially El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, were important drivers of fire synchrony. However, bottom‐up factors modified fire occurrence at smaller spatial scales, with variable local influence on the timing of abrupt, unusually long fire‐free periods starting between 1887 and 1979 CE. Thirty sites lacked these fire‐free periods. In contrast to the neighboring southwestern United States, many ecosystems in northern Mexico maintain frequent fire regimes and intact fire–climate relationships that are useful in understanding climate influences on disturbance across scales of space and time. The occurrence of wildfire is influenced by a suite of factors ranging from “top‐down” influences (e.g., climate) to “bottom‐up” localized influences (e.g., ignitions, fuels, and land use). We carried out the first broad‐scale assessment of wildland fire patterns in northern Mexico to assess the relative influence of top‐down and bottom‐up drivers of fire in a region where frequent fire regimes continued well into the 20th century. Using a network of 67 sites, we assessed (1) fire synchrony and the scales at which synchrony is evident, (2) climate drivers of fire, and (3) asynchrony in fire regime changes. We found high fire synchrony across northern Mexico between 1750 and 2008, with synchrony highest at distances <400 km. Climate oscillations, especially El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, were important drivers of fire synchrony. However, bottom‐up factors modified fire occurrence at smaller spatial scales, with variable local influence on the timing of abrupt, unusually long fire‐free periods starting between 1887 and 1979 CE. Thirty sites lacked these fire‐free periods. In contrast to the neighboring southwestern United States, many ecosystems in northern Mexico maintain frequent fire regimes and intact fire–climate relationships that are useful in understanding climate influences on disturbance across scales of space and time.
Author	Stephens, Scott L. Falk, Donald A. Meunier, Jed Skinner, Carl N. Brown, Peter M. Drury, Stacy A. Cortés Montaño, Citlali Yocom Kent, Larissa L. Poulos, Helen M. Villanueva‐Díaz, José Cerano‐Paredes, Julián Fulé, Peter Z. Cornejo‐Oviedo, Eladio
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Larissa L. surname: Yocom Kent fullname: Yocom Kent, Larissa L. email: larissa.yocom@gmail.com organization: Northern Arizona University – sequence: 2 givenname: Peter Z. surname: Fulé fullname: Fulé, Peter Z. organization: Northern Arizona University – sequence: 3 givenname: Peter M. surname: Brown fullname: Brown, Peter M. organization: Rocky Mountain Tree‐Ring Research – sequence: 4 givenname: Julián surname: Cerano‐Paredes fullname: Cerano‐Paredes, Julián organization: National Center of Disciplinary Research on Water, Soil, Plants, and Atmosphere – sequence: 5 givenname: Eladio surname: Cornejo‐Oviedo fullname: Cornejo‐Oviedo, Eladio organization: Universidad Autónoma Agraria Antonio Narro – sequence: 6 givenname: Citlali surname: Cortés Montaño fullname: Cortés Montaño, Citlali organization: Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango – sequence: 7 givenname: Stacy A. surname: Drury fullname: Drury, Stacy A. organization: USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station – sequence: 8 givenname: Donald A. surname: Falk fullname: Falk, Donald A. organization: University of Arizona – sequence: 9 givenname: Jed surname: Meunier fullname: Meunier, Jed organization: Science Operations Center – sequence: 10 givenname: Helen M. surname: Poulos fullname: Poulos, Helen M. organization: Wesleyan University – sequence: 11 givenname: Carl N. surname: Skinner fullname: Skinner, Carl N. organization: Pacific Southwest Research Station – sequence: 12 givenname: Scott L. surname: Stephens fullname: Stephens, Scott L. organization: University of California – sequence: 13 givenname: José surname: Villanueva‐Díaz fullname: Villanueva‐Díaz, José organization: National Center of Disciplinary Research on Water, Soil, Plants, and Atmosphere
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Snippet	The occurrence of wildfire is influenced by a suite of factors ranging from “top‐down” influences (e.g., climate) to “bottom‐up” localized influences (e.g.,...
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SubjectTerms	20th century Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation climate Climate change dendrochronology Drought Ecosystems El Nino El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Environmental changes fire history fire regime fire scars Forest & brush fires Influence Land use Livestock Mexico Pacific Decadal Oscillation Southern Oscillation synchrony Topography Wildfires
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Title	Climate drives fire synchrony but local factors control fire regime change in northern Mexico
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