Improving the forecast performance of landslide susceptibility mapping by using ensemble gradient boosting algorithms

Landslide is the most dangerous natural hazard in mountainous regions. Disasters due to landslides annually result in human casualties, destroyed property, and monetary damages. Landslide susceptibility maps, highlighting landslide-prone areas, can provide useful spatial information for risk managem...

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Published in:Environment, development and sustainability Vol. 27; no. 8; pp. 18409 - 18443
Main Authors: Ha, Hang, Bui, Quynh Duy, Tran, Dinh Trong, Nguyen, Dinh Quoc, Bui, Hanh Xuan, Luu, Chinh
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.08.2025
Subjects:
disaster preparedness
Earth and Environmental Science
Ecology
Economic Geology
Economic Growth
Environment
Environmental Economics
Environmental Management
humans
landslides
mountains
risk management
spatial data
Sustainable Development
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Landslide susceptibility
Gradient boosting models
Bac Kan province
Landslide risk management
Machine learning
ISSN:1573-2975, 1573-2975
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Landslide is the most dangerous natural hazard in mountainous regions. Disasters due to landslides annually result in human casualties, destroyed property, and monetary damages. Landslide susceptibility maps, highlighting landslide-prone areas, can provide useful spatial information for risk management and mitigation. These maps are required to be updated continuously because of the complexity of the landslide formation and movement processes. This underlines the need to develop and use cutting-edge machine learning algorithms to produce more landslide predictive maps. The study aimed to compare the predictive performance of advanced gradient boosting algorithms for modeling landslide susceptibility, including Gradient Boosting (GB), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Categorical Boosting (CB), and Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost). Fifteen landslide influencing factors were collected and selected based on the relationship between historical landslide locations and local geo-environmental characteristics. The statistical parameters were used to compare and verify the models’ predictive performance. All proposed models have excellent forecast performances, of which the CB model has the best forecast performance (AUC = 0.921), followed by the GB model (AUC = 0.915), the LightGBM model (AUC = 0.911), the NGBoost (AUC = 0.900), and the XGBoost model (AUC = 0.897). Landslide susceptibility maps created by the CB model are recommended for the Bac Kan province in Vietnam after being validated with current landslide events recorded by the Vietnam Disasters Monitoring System. There is potential for gradient boosting models and landslide susceptibility maps to improve disaster management activities in hilly regions.
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ISSN:1573-2975
1573-2975
DOI:10.1007/s10668-024-04694-3