Do mixed-use developments optimize VMT and emissions reduction? Evidence from 36 regions
•MXDs generate about one-third less VMT than conventional developments of comparable size.•Longitudinal data shows that MXDs generate about 50% fewer vehicle trips over time.•Internal capture is a strong predictor of VMT and must be accounted for in trip generation models.•Even amongst MXDs, people...
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| Published in: | Transportation research. Part D, Transport and environment Vol. 147; p. 104944 |
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier Ltd
01.10.2025
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| ISSN: | 1361-9209 |
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| Abstract | •MXDs generate about one-third less VMT than conventional developments of comparable size.•Longitudinal data shows that MXDs generate about 50% fewer vehicle trips over time.•Internal capture is a strong predictor of VMT and must be accounted for in trip generation models.•Even amongst MXDs, people walk more in those with rich built-environment characteristics.•MXDs in more compact regions generate about six times (6x) lower GHG emissions per trip.
Mixed-use developments (MXDs) have dovetailed nicely as a development design strategy to lower VMT by concentrating diverse activities within walkable compact environments. Despite their conceptual appeal, estimating their actual impacts on vehicle trips and environmental quality remains both limited and challenging for agencies and local governments due to inconsistencies in existing traffic impact methodologies, which fail to account for regional variability. This study addresses these limitations by using advanced Gaussian multi-level regression models and K-fold cross-validation, incorporating the famous 7-D built environment variables to estimate comparative VMT and GHG emissions across 710 MXDs in 36 U.S. regions. We find that MXDs generate about one-third less VMT than conventional developments, with up to an 80% reduction in certain regions. Over time, MXDs generate even fewer vehicle trips (about 50% less) and significantly lower CO2e, suggesting positive impacts on lessening both traffic congestion and climate pollution in cities. Our study refines the methodology for estimating development-generated VMT while providing insights for shaping low-emission communities that align with modern sustainability goals. |
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| AbstractList | •MXDs generate about one-third less VMT than conventional developments of comparable size.•Longitudinal data shows that MXDs generate about 50% fewer vehicle trips over time.•Internal capture is a strong predictor of VMT and must be accounted for in trip generation models.•Even amongst MXDs, people walk more in those with rich built-environment characteristics.•MXDs in more compact regions generate about six times (6x) lower GHG emissions per trip.
Mixed-use developments (MXDs) have dovetailed nicely as a development design strategy to lower VMT by concentrating diverse activities within walkable compact environments. Despite their conceptual appeal, estimating their actual impacts on vehicle trips and environmental quality remains both limited and challenging for agencies and local governments due to inconsistencies in existing traffic impact methodologies, which fail to account for regional variability. This study addresses these limitations by using advanced Gaussian multi-level regression models and K-fold cross-validation, incorporating the famous 7-D built environment variables to estimate comparative VMT and GHG emissions across 710 MXDs in 36 U.S. regions. We find that MXDs generate about one-third less VMT than conventional developments, with up to an 80% reduction in certain regions. Over time, MXDs generate even fewer vehicle trips (about 50% less) and significantly lower CO2e, suggesting positive impacts on lessening both traffic congestion and climate pollution in cities. Our study refines the methodology for estimating development-generated VMT while providing insights for shaping low-emission communities that align with modern sustainability goals. |
| ArticleNumber | 104944 |
| Author | Ewing, Reid Tian, Guang Brewer, Simon Tuffour, Justice P. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Justice P. orcidid: 0000-0001-8672-6854 surname: Tuffour fullname: Tuffour, Justice P. email: justice.tuffour@utah.edu organization: Department of City and Metropolitan Planning. College of Architecture and Planning, The University of Utah, 375 S 1530 E, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA – sequence: 2 givenname: Reid surname: Ewing fullname: Ewing, Reid email: ewing@arch.utah.edu organization: Department of City and Metropolitan Planning. College of Architecture and Planning, The University of Utah, 375 S 1530 E, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA – sequence: 3 givenname: Simon surname: Brewer fullname: Brewer, Simon email: simon.brewer@geog.utah.edu organization: Department of Geography, The University of Utah, 260 Central Campus Drive, Room 4845, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA – sequence: 4 givenname: Guang orcidid: 0000-0002-4023-3912 surname: Tian fullname: Tian, Guang email: guang.tian@utah.edu organization: Department of City and Metropolitan Planning, Scientific Computing and Imaging Institute – The University of Utah, Warnock Engineering Building (WEB) Room 4646, 72 South Central Campus Drive, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112, USA |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000068 10.1016/j.trd.2016.10.011 10.17226/14489 10.3141/2500-14 10.1080/01944363.2016.1245112 10.1111/j.1469-185X.2010.00141.x 10.1177/0042098017710122 10.1007/s11116-016-9702-x 10.4278/0890-1171-18.1.47 10.1080/01944363.2016.1240044 10.1016/j.trd.2017.02.002 10.1249/MSS.0b013e31817c67a4 10.1080/13574800802451155 10.1016/j.cstp.2022.10.004 10.2139/ssrn.2390552 10.1007/s11116-024-10542-0 10.1177/0885412215595439 10.1093/epirev/mxm009 10.1016/j.trd.2017.03.017 10.1080/13574809.2015.1041894 10.1016/j.trd.2019.102205 10.1016/j.cities.2019.102564 10.1080/01944361003766766 |
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| Keywords | Built Environment Multi-Level Regression Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Mixed Use Developments (MXD) |
| Language | English |
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| PublicationTitle | Transportation research. Part D, Transport and environment |
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| SubjectTerms | Built Environment Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Mixed Use Developments (MXD) Multi-Level Regression Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) |
| Title | Do mixed-use developments optimize VMT and emissions reduction? Evidence from 36 regions |
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