Do mixed-use developments optimize VMT and emissions reduction? Evidence from 36 regions

•MXDs generate about one-third less VMT than conventional developments of comparable size.•Longitudinal data shows that MXDs generate about 50% fewer vehicle trips over time.•Internal capture is a strong predictor of VMT and must be accounted for in trip generation models.•Even amongst MXDs, people...

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Vydáno v:Transportation research. Part D, Transport and environment Ročník 147; s. 104944
Hlavní autoři: Tuffour, Justice P., Ewing, Reid, Brewer, Simon, Tian, Guang
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Elsevier Ltd 01.10.2025
Témata:
Built Environment
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions
Mixed Use Developments (MXD)
Multi-Level Regression
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
Built Environment
Multi-Level Regression
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions
Mixed Use Developments (MXD)
ISSN:1361-9209
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Shrnutí:•MXDs generate about one-third less VMT than conventional developments of comparable size.•Longitudinal data shows that MXDs generate about 50% fewer vehicle trips over time.•Internal capture is a strong predictor of VMT and must be accounted for in trip generation models.•Even amongst MXDs, people walk more in those with rich built-environment characteristics.•MXDs in more compact regions generate about six times (6x) lower GHG emissions per trip. Mixed-use developments (MXDs) have dovetailed nicely as a development design strategy to lower VMT by concentrating diverse activities within walkable compact environments. Despite their conceptual appeal, estimating their actual impacts on vehicle trips and environmental quality remains both limited and challenging for agencies and local governments due to inconsistencies in existing traffic impact methodologies, which fail to account for regional variability. This study addresses these limitations by using advanced Gaussian multi-level regression models and K-fold cross-validation, incorporating the famous 7-D built environment variables to estimate comparative VMT and GHG emissions across 710 MXDs in 36 U.S. regions. We find that MXDs generate about one-third less VMT than conventional developments, with up to an 80% reduction in certain regions. Over time, MXDs generate even fewer vehicle trips (about 50% less) and significantly lower CO2e, suggesting positive impacts on lessening both traffic congestion and climate pollution in cities. Our study refines the methodology for estimating development-generated VMT while providing insights for shaping low-emission communities that align with modern sustainability goals.
ISSN:1361-9209
DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104944