Study of AR-, TS-, and MCS-Associated Precipitation and Extreme Precipitation in Present and Warmer Climates

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical storms (TSs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are important weather phenomena that often threaten society through heavy precipitation and strong winds. Despite their potentially vital role in global and regional hydrological cycles, their contributions to l...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of climate Jg. 35; H. 2; S. 479 - 497
1. Verfasser: Zhao, Ming
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Boston American Meteorological Society 15.01.2022
Schlagworte:
Climate change
Climate models
Extreme weather
Fluid dynamics
Geophysical fluids
Global climate
Global climate models
Global warming
Heavy precipitation
Hydrodynamics
Hydrologic cycle
Hydrological cycle
Hydrology
Latitude
Mean precipitation
Mesoscale convective systems
Precipitation
Rainfall intensity
Rivers
Sea surface
Storms
Strong winds
Tropical atmosphere
Tropical climate
Tropical climates
Tropical depressions
Tropical environments
Tropical storms
Winds
ISSN:0894-8755, 1520-0442
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Zusammenfassung:Atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical storms (TSs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are important weather phenomena that often threaten society through heavy precipitation and strong winds. Despite their potentially vital role in global and regional hydrological cycles, their contributions to long-term mean and extreme precipitation have not been systematically explored at the global scale. Using observational and reanalysis data, and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s new high-resolution global climate model, we quantify that despite their occasional (13%) occurrence globally, AR, TS, and MCS days together account for ∼55% of global mean precipitation and ∼75% of extreme precipitation with daily rates exceeding its local 99th percentile. The model reproduces well the observed percentage of mean and extreme precipitation associated with AR, TS, and MCS days. In an idealized global warming simulation with a homogeneous SST increase of 4 K, the modeled changes in global mean and regional distribution of precipitation correspond well with changes in AR/TS/MCS precipitation. Globally, the frequency of AR days increases and migrates toward higher latitudes while the frequency of TS days increases over the central Pacific and part of the south Indian Ocean with a decrease elsewhere. The frequency of MCS days tends to increase over parts of the equatorial western and eastern Pacific warm pools and high latitudes and decreases over most part of the tropics and subtropics. The AR/TS/MCS mean precipitation intensity increases by ∼5% K−1 due primarily to precipitation increases in the top 25% of AR/TS/MCS days with the heaviest precipitation, which are dominated by the thermodynamic component with the dynamic and microphysical components playing a secondary role.
Bibliographie:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 14
ISSN:0894-8755
1520-0442
DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0145.1