Adoption of Powertrain Technologies in Automobiles-A System Dynamics Model of Technology Diffusion in the American Market

The American automobile industry is facing substantial environmental and energy challenges driving the pursuit of alternative powertrain technologies-"The intervening mechanism by which power is transmitted from an engine to a propeller or axle that it drives," which nominally includes eng...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IEEE transactions on vehicular technology Vol. 67; no. 7; pp. 5621 - 5634
Main Authors: Liu, Chen, Rouse, Willian Bill, Hanawalt, Edward S.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: New York IEEE 01.07.2018
The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
Subjects:
Alternative fuel vehicles
Automobile industry
Automobiles
Automotive parts
Bass
Computational modeling
computer simulation
consumer behavior
decision making
Diffusion
Driving
Economic analysis
enterprise transformation
Government
Government procurement
Mathematical model
New technology
Organizational aspects
Powertrain
Regression analysis
Regression models
regulation and fee-bates
risk & uncertainty
Shafts (machine elements)
System dynamics
Technological innovation
Technology adoption
Technology utilization
ISSN:0018-9545, 1939-9359
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The American automobile industry is facing substantial environmental and energy challenges driving the pursuit of alternative powertrain technologies-"The intervening mechanism by which power is transmitted from an engine to a propeller or axle that it drives," which nominally includes engine, transmission, drive shafts, differentials, and the final drive. Emerging alternative fuel vehicles are showing their potential to address these challenges. However, diffusion of new technologies has many complications. This paper uses system dynamics modeling to investigate the impacts of individual and organizational parameters. This model embeds two traditional modeling methods for technology adoption, the Bass diffusion model and multinomial logit regression method. Five types of powertrain systems and three major stakeholders are considered. Mathematical relationships among different variables are elaborated. The qualitative impacts of government feebate, manufacturer willingness, and consumer purchasing preferences on economic and environmental issues are addressed using scenario analysis.
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ISSN:0018-9545
1939-9359
DOI:10.1109/TVT.2017.2756988