The Theory That Would Not Die How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the fir...

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Hlavní autor: McGrayne, Sharon Bertsch
Médium: E-kniha Kniha
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: New Haven Yale University Press 17.05.2011
Témata:
Bayesian statistical decision theory
Bayesian statistical decision theory > History
History
History of Science & Technology
MATHEMATICS
MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy
MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / Bayesian Analysis
SCIENCE / History
ISBN:9780300169690, 0300169698, 9780300175097, 0300175094
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Obsah:
  • Front Matter Table of Contents Preface and Note to Readers Acknowledgments 1.: Causes in the Air 2.: The Man Who Did Everything 3.: Many Doubts, Few Defenders 4.: Bayes Goes to War 5.: Dead and Buried Again 6.: Arthur Bailey 7.: From Tool to Theology 8.: Jerome Cornfield, Lung Cancer, and Heart Attacks 9.: There’s Always a First Time 10.: 46,656 Varieties 11.: Business Decisions 12.: Who Wrote The Federalist? 13.: The Cold Warrior 14.: Three Mile Island 15.: The Navy Searches 16.: Eureka! 17.: Rosetta Stones Appendix A Appendix B Notes Glossary Bibliography Index
  • 2. The Man Who Did Everything --
  • Contents --
  • 3. Many Doubts, Few Defenders --
  • Index
  • Part III. The Glorious Revival --
  • Michael J. Campbell --
  • 12. Who Wrote The Federalist? --
  • Part II. Second World War Era --
  • 17. Rosetta Stones --
  • 8. Jerome Cornfield, Lung Cancer, And Heart Attacks --
  • Appendix A. Dr Fisher’s Casebook: The Doctor Sees The Light
  • Notes --
  • 15. The Navy Searches --
  • 13. The Cold Warrior --
  • Bibliography --
  • 1. Causes In The Air --
  • 9. There’s Always A First Time --
  • 14. Three Mile Island --
  • Acknowledgments --
  • 11. Business Decisions --
  • Part V. Victory --
  • Appendix B. Applying Bayes’ Rule To Mammograms And Breast Cancer --
  • 16. Eureka! --
  • 5. Dead And Buried Again --
  • Glossary --
  • 10. 46,656 Varieties --
  • 4. Bayes Goes To War --
  • Part IV. To Prove Its Worth --
  • Frontmatter --
  • Preface And Note To Readers --
  • 6. Arthur Bailey --
  • 7. From Tool To Theology --
  • Part I. Enlightenment And The Anti-Bayesian Reaction --