Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era
We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE...
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| Vydané v: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Ročník 113; číslo 11; s. E1434 |
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| Hlavní autori: | , , , , , , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | English |
| Vydavateľské údaje: |
United States
15.03.2016
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| ISSN: | 1091-6490, 1091-6490 |
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| Abstract | We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ∼ 0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability [Formula: see text]) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely ([Formula: see text]) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed [Formula: see text] cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. |
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| AbstractList | We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ∼ 0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability [Formula: see text]) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely ([Formula: see text]) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed [Formula: see text] cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ∼ 0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability [Formula: see text]) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely ([Formula: see text]) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed [Formula: see text] cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ∼ 0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability [Formula: see text]) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely ([Formula: see text]) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed [Formula: see text] cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. |
| Author | Donnelly, Jeffrey P Bittermann, Klaus Morrow, Eric D Hay, Carling C Mitrovica, Jerry X Rahmstorf, Stefan Kopp, Robert E Kemp, Andrew C Horton, Benjamin P Gehrels, W Roland |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Robert E surname: Kopp fullname: Kopp, Robert E email: robert.kopp@rutgers.edu organization: Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854; Institute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901; Rutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901; robert.kopp@rutgers.edu – sequence: 2 givenname: Andrew C surname: Kemp fullname: Kemp, Andrew C organization: Department of Earth & Ocean Sciences, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02115 – sequence: 3 givenname: Klaus surname: Bittermann fullname: Bittermann, Klaus organization: Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 4 givenname: Benjamin P surname: Horton fullname: Horton, Benjamin P organization: Institute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901; Sea-Level Research, Department of Marine & Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798; Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 – sequence: 5 givenname: Jeffrey P surname: Donnelly fullname: Donnelly, Jeffrey P organization: Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543 – sequence: 6 givenname: W Roland surname: Gehrels fullname: Gehrels, W Roland organization: Environment Department, University of York, York YO10 5NG, United Kingdom – sequence: 7 givenname: Carling C surname: Hay fullname: Hay, Carling C organization: Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854; Institute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901; Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 – sequence: 8 givenname: Jerry X surname: Mitrovica fullname: Mitrovica, Jerry X organization: Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 – sequence: 9 givenname: Eric D surname: Morrow fullname: Morrow, Eric D organization: Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854; Institute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 – sequence: 10 givenname: Stefan surname: Rahmstorf fullname: Rahmstorf, Stefan organization: Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26903659$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Snippet | We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative... |
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| Title | Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era |
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