Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE...

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Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 113; no. 11; p. E1434
Main Authors: Kopp, Robert E, Kemp, Andrew C, Bittermann, Klaus, Horton, Benjamin P, Donnelly, Jeffrey P, Gehrels, W Roland, Hay, Carling C, Mitrovica, Jerry X, Morrow, Eric D, Rahmstorf, Stefan
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States 15.03.2016
Subjects:
late Holocene
climate
ocean
Common Era
sea level
ISSN:1091-6490, 1091-6490
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Summary:We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ∼ 0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability [Formula: see text]) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely ([Formula: see text]) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed [Formula: see text] cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.
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ISSN:1091-6490
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1517056113