Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany)
The impact of a climate change scenario on regional climate conditions and runoff characteristics has been investigated for the Mulde catchment, a meso-scale sub-basin of the Elbe in Germany. First, the semi-distributed, conceptual model HBV-D has been successfully applied to simulate discharge for...
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| Published in: | Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) Vol. 267; no. 1; pp. 53 - 64 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Journal Article Conference Proceeding |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Amsterdam
Elsevier B.V
01.10.2002
Elsevier Science |
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| ISSN: | 0022-1694, 1879-2707 |
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| Abstract | The impact of a climate change scenario on regional climate conditions and runoff characteristics has been investigated for the Mulde catchment, a meso-scale sub-basin of the Elbe in Germany. First, the semi-distributed, conceptual model HBV-D has been successfully applied to simulate discharge for present climate conditions. Further, the expanded downscaling method (EDS) was calibrated and applied to observed global circulation fields in order to produce local climate input data for HBV-D. Finally, the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM4/OPYC3, driven by a climate change scenario, provided simulated global circulation patterns for application with EDS. The regionalised scenario conditions then served as input to HBV-D in order to investigate the impact of global climate change on regional hydrology. The results indicate that an obvious increase in temperature is accompanied by a clear tendency to reduced precipitation over the investigated area for the next 100 years. These conditions lead to a decrease in simulated mean discharges of the Mulde. The study is considered to be a contribution for regional impact studies on global climate change. At the same time, it demonstrates existing shortcomings and limitations of current climate impact research. |
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| AbstractList | The impact of global climate change on mesoscale hydrological processes and regional climate was studied in the Mulde catchment, Germany. The semi-distributed conceptual model HBV-D was applied to simulate discharge under a given climate change scenario. The downscaling method, use of simulated global circulation patterns, and resulting regionalized scenario conditions are discussed. Simulation results show a clear increase in temperature accompanied by reduced precipitation over the next 100 yr, leading to a decrease in simulated mean discharges of the Mulde. The limitations of current climate change impact research are considered, and the contribution of this research to the overall climate change field is noted. The impact of a climate change scenario on regional climate conditions and runoff characteristics has been investigated for the Mulde catchment, a meso-scale sub-basin of the Elbe in Germany. First, the semi-distributed, conceptual model HBV-D has been successfully applied to simulate discharge for present climate conditions. Further, the expanded downscaling method (EDS) was calibrated and applied to observed global circulation fields in order to produce local climate input data for HBV-D. Finally, the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM4/OPYC3, driven by a climate change scenario, provided simulated global circulation patterns for application with EDS. The regionalised scenario conditions then served as input to HBV-D in order to investigate the impact of global climate change on regional hydrology. The results indicate that an obvious increase in temperature is accompanied by a clear tendency to reduced precipitation over the investigated area for the next 100 years. These conditions lead to a decrease in simulated mean discharges of the Mulde. The study is considered to be a contribution for regional impact studies on global climate change. At the same time, it demonstrates existing shortcomings and limitations of current climate impact research. |
| Author | Menzel, L Bürger, G |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: L surname: Menzel fullname: Menzel, L email: menzel@pik-potsdam.de – sequence: 2 givenname: G surname: Bürger fullname: Bürger, G |
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| Snippet | The impact of a climate change scenario on regional climate conditions and runoff characteristics has been investigated for the Mulde catchment, a meso-scale... The impact of global climate change on mesoscale hydrological processes and regional climate was studied in the Mulde catchment, Germany. The semi-distributed... |
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| SubjectTerms | Calibration Catchments Circulation Climate Climate change Discharge Downscaling Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space energy-dispersive X-ray analysis Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics Exact sciences and technology Freshwater Germany Germany, Elbe R Germany, Mulde R Global circulation models Hydrology Hydrology. Hydrogeology Mathematical models Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc Precipitation Regional hydrology Runoff temperature watersheds |
| Title | Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany) |
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