Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany)

The impact of a climate change scenario on regional climate conditions and runoff characteristics has been investigated for the Mulde catchment, a meso-scale sub-basin of the Elbe in Germany. First, the semi-distributed, conceptual model HBV-D has been successfully applied to simulate discharge for...

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Published in:Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) Vol. 267; no. 1; pp. 53 - 64
Main Authors: Menzel, L, Bürger, G
Format: Journal Article Conference Proceeding
Language:English
Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.10.2002
Elsevier Science
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ISSN:0022-1694, 1879-2707
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Abstract The impact of a climate change scenario on regional climate conditions and runoff characteristics has been investigated for the Mulde catchment, a meso-scale sub-basin of the Elbe in Germany. First, the semi-distributed, conceptual model HBV-D has been successfully applied to simulate discharge for present climate conditions. Further, the expanded downscaling method (EDS) was calibrated and applied to observed global circulation fields in order to produce local climate input data for HBV-D. Finally, the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM4/OPYC3, driven by a climate change scenario, provided simulated global circulation patterns for application with EDS. The regionalised scenario conditions then served as input to HBV-D in order to investigate the impact of global climate change on regional hydrology. The results indicate that an obvious increase in temperature is accompanied by a clear tendency to reduced precipitation over the investigated area for the next 100 years. These conditions lead to a decrease in simulated mean discharges of the Mulde. The study is considered to be a contribution for regional impact studies on global climate change. At the same time, it demonstrates existing shortcomings and limitations of current climate impact research.
AbstractList The impact of global climate change on mesoscale hydrological processes and regional climate was studied in the Mulde catchment, Germany. The semi-distributed conceptual model HBV-D was applied to simulate discharge under a given climate change scenario. The downscaling method, use of simulated global circulation patterns, and resulting regionalized scenario conditions are discussed. Simulation results show a clear increase in temperature accompanied by reduced precipitation over the next 100 yr, leading to a decrease in simulated mean discharges of the Mulde. The limitations of current climate change impact research are considered, and the contribution of this research to the overall climate change field is noted.
The impact of a climate change scenario on regional climate conditions and runoff characteristics has been investigated for the Mulde catchment, a meso-scale sub-basin of the Elbe in Germany. First, the semi-distributed, conceptual model HBV-D has been successfully applied to simulate discharge for present climate conditions. Further, the expanded downscaling method (EDS) was calibrated and applied to observed global circulation fields in order to produce local climate input data for HBV-D. Finally, the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM4/OPYC3, driven by a climate change scenario, provided simulated global circulation patterns for application with EDS. The regionalised scenario conditions then served as input to HBV-D in order to investigate the impact of global climate change on regional hydrology. The results indicate that an obvious increase in temperature is accompanied by a clear tendency to reduced precipitation over the investigated area for the next 100 years. These conditions lead to a decrease in simulated mean discharges of the Mulde. The study is considered to be a contribution for regional impact studies on global climate change. At the same time, it demonstrates existing shortcomings and limitations of current climate impact research.
Author Menzel, L
Bürger, G
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Issue 1
Keywords Climate change
Global circulation models
Downscaling
Regional hydrology
impact statements
drainage basins
floods
models
climate modification
atmospheric precipitation
Europe
river discharge
runoff
rain water
drainage patterns
climate
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Snippet The impact of a climate change scenario on regional climate conditions and runoff characteristics has been investigated for the Mulde catchment, a meso-scale...
The impact of global climate change on mesoscale hydrological processes and regional climate was studied in the Mulde catchment, Germany. The semi-distributed...
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StartPage 53
SubjectTerms Calibration
Catchments
Circulation
Climate
Climate change
Discharge
Downscaling
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
energy-dispersive X-ray analysis
Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics
Exact sciences and technology
Freshwater
Germany
Germany, Elbe R
Germany, Mulde R
Global circulation models
Hydrology
Hydrology. Hydrogeology
Mathematical models
Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc
Precipitation
Regional hydrology
Runoff
temperature
watersheds
Title Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany)
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00139-7
https://www.proquest.com/docview/14631811
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https://www.proquest.com/docview/49044056
Volume 267
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