Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany)

The impact of a climate change scenario on regional climate conditions and runoff characteristics has been investigated for the Mulde catchment, a meso-scale sub-basin of the Elbe in Germany. First, the semi-distributed, conceptual model HBV-D has been successfully applied to simulate discharge for...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) Vol. 267; no. 1; pp. 53 - 64
Main Authors: Menzel, L, Bürger, G
Format: Journal Article Conference Proceeding
Language:English
Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.10.2002
Elsevier Science
Subjects:
Calibration
Catchments
Circulation
Climate
Climate change
Discharge
Downscaling
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
energy-dispersive X-ray analysis
Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics
Exact sciences and technology
Freshwater
Germany
Germany, Elbe R
Germany, Mulde R
Global circulation models
Hydrology
Hydrology. Hydrogeology
Mathematical models
Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc
Precipitation
Regional hydrology
Runoff
temperature
watersheds
Germany
Elbe River
Central Europe
Climate change
Global circulation models
Downscaling
Regional hydrology
impact statements
drainage basins
floods
models
climate modification
atmospheric precipitation
Europe
river discharge
runoff
rain water
drainage patterns
climate
ISSN:0022-1694, 1879-2707
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The impact of a climate change scenario on regional climate conditions and runoff characteristics has been investigated for the Mulde catchment, a meso-scale sub-basin of the Elbe in Germany. First, the semi-distributed, conceptual model HBV-D has been successfully applied to simulate discharge for present climate conditions. Further, the expanded downscaling method (EDS) was calibrated and applied to observed global circulation fields in order to produce local climate input data for HBV-D. Finally, the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM4/OPYC3, driven by a climate change scenario, provided simulated global circulation patterns for application with EDS. The regionalised scenario conditions then served as input to HBV-D in order to investigate the impact of global climate change on regional hydrology. The results indicate that an obvious increase in temperature is accompanied by a clear tendency to reduced precipitation over the investigated area for the next 100 years. These conditions lead to a decrease in simulated mean discharges of the Mulde. The study is considered to be a contribution for regional impact studies on global climate change. At the same time, it demonstrates existing shortcomings and limitations of current climate impact research.
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ISSN:0022-1694
1879-2707
DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00139-7