Safe and just Earth system boundaries

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked 1 – 3 , yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently 4 , 5 . Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth...

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Published in:Nature (London) Vol. 619; no. 7968; pp. 102 - 111
Main Authors: Rockström, Johan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Qin, Dahe, Lade, Steven J., Abrams, Jesse F., Andersen, Lauren S., Armstrong McKay, David I., Bai, Xuemei, Bala, Govindasamy, Bunn, Stuart E., Ciobanu, Daniel, DeClerck, Fabrice, Ebi, Kristie, Gifford, Lauren, Gordon, Christopher, Hasan, Syezlin, Kanie, Norichika, Lenton, Timothy M., Loriani, Sina, Liverman, Diana M., Mohamed, Awaz, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obura, David, Ospina, Daniel, Prodani, Klaudia, Rammelt, Crelis, Sakschewski, Boris, Scholtens, Joeri, Stewart-Koster, Ben, Tharammal, Thejna, van Vuuren, Detlef, Verburg, Peter H., Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zimm, Caroline, Bennett, Elena M., Bringezu, Stefan, Broadgate, Wendy, Green, Pamela A., Huang, Lei, Jacobson, Lisa, Ndehedehe, Christopher, Pedde, Simona, Rocha, Juan, Scheffer, Marten, Schulte-Uebbing, Lena, de Vries, Wim, Xiao, Cunde, Xu, Chi, Xu, Xinwu, Zafra-Calvo, Noelia, Zhang, Xin
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 06.07.2023
Nature Publishing Group
Subjects:
704/106/694/1108
704/158/670
704/172/4081
704/242
704/47/4112
Aerosols
Aerosols - metabolism
Atmospheric aerosols
Biosphere
Boundaries
Climate
Climate Change
Cryosphere
Earth
Earth, Planet
Environmental Justice
Global aerosols
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Internationality
Marginalized groups
multidisciplinary
Nutrient cycles
Nutrients - metabolism
Resilience
Safety - legislation & jurisprudence
Safety - standards
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Stability
Systems stability
Water - metabolism
Well being
ISSN:0028-0836, 1476-4687, 1476-4687
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked 1 – 3 , yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently 4 , 5 . Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice) 4 . The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future. We find that justice considerations constrain the integrated Earth system boundaries more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading, and our assessment provides a foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people.
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ISSN:0028-0836
1476-4687
1476-4687
DOI:10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8