Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw

The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsi...

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Veröffentlicht in:Nature geoscience Jg. 13; H. 2; S. 138 - 143
Hauptverfasser: Turetsky Merritt R, Abbott, Benjamin W, Jones, Miriam C, Walter, Anthony Katey, Olefeldt, David, Schuur, Edward A, Grosse Guido, Kuhry, Peter, Hugelius Gustaf, Koven, Charles, Lawrence, David M, Gibson, Carolyn, Sannel A Britta K, David, McGuire A
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: London Nature Publishing Group 01.02.2020
Schlagworte:
Atmospheric models
Carbon
Carbon emissions
Carbon sinks
Carbon sources
Carbon uptake
Climate change
Climate models
Computer simulation
Emissions
Forecasting
Lakes
Landslides
Large-scale models
Permafrost
Permafrost thaws
Regrowth
Scale models
Soil
Soil stabilization
Soils
Thawing
Uptake
Vegetation
Vegetation regrowth
Wetlands
ISSN:1752-0894, 1752-0908
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Zusammenfassung:The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsing ground, rapid erosion and landslides. Here, we synthesize the best available information and develop inventory models to simulate abrupt thaw impacts on permafrost carbon balance. Emissions across 2.5 million km2 of abrupt thaw could provide a similar climate feedback as gradual thaw emissions from the entire 18 million km2 permafrost region under the warming projection of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. While models forecast that gradual thaw may lead to net ecosystem carbon uptake under projections of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, abrupt thaw emissions are likely to offset this potential carbon sink. Active hillslope erosional features will occupy 3% of abrupt thaw terrain by 2300 but emit one-third of abrupt thaw carbon losses. Thaw lakes and wetlands are methane hot spots but their carbon release is partially offset by slowly regrowing vegetation. After considering abrupt thaw stabilization, lake drainage and soil carbon uptake by vegetation regrowth, we conclude that models considering only gradual permafrost thaw are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.Analyses of inventory models under two climate change projection scenarios suggest that carbon emissions from abrupt thaw of permafrost through ground collapse, erosion and landslides could contribute significantly to the overall permafrost carbon balance.
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ISSN:1752-0894
1752-0908
DOI:10.1038/s41561-019-0526-0