Collaborative Management of Water‐Energy‐Food‐Ecosystems Nexus in Central Asia Under Uncertainty
Collaborative management of the water‐energy‐food‐ecosystems (WEFE) nexus can contribute significantly to sustainable development. However, multiple decision‐making levels with diverse preferences and multiple uncertainties in different forms pose intractable challenges to the management process. In...
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| Vydáno v: | Water resources research Ročník 60; číslo 3 |
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| Hlavní autoři: | , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Vydáno: |
Washington
John Wiley & Sons, Inc
01.03.2024
Wiley |
| Témata: | |
| ISSN: | 0043-1397, 1944-7973 |
| On-line přístup: | Získat plný text |
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| Shrnutí: | Collaborative management of the water‐energy‐food‐ecosystems (WEFE) nexus can contribute significantly to sustainable development. However, multiple decision‐making levels with diverse preferences and multiple uncertainties in different forms pose intractable challenges to the management process. In this study, a novel optimization method named as multi‐level chance‐constrained fuzzy programming (MCFP) is developed to jointly manage the WEFE nexus. MCFP has advantages in evaluating trade‐offs among multiple competitive decision makers, solving decentralized planning problems with hierarchical structure, and tackling uncertainties expressed as randomness and vagueness. MCFP is then applied to the WEFE nexus in Central Asia, where five countries, 43 states, six water sources, and eight water users are involved over a long‐term planning horizon (2021–2050). A set of scenarios are designed to reflect decision‐making preferences based on different irrigation efficiencies, food, ecological and electricity demands as well as constraint‐violation probability and system credibility levels. The major findings are: (a) the proportion of agricultural water allocation would reduce to 45.4%–56.6% by 2050 to save more water for ensuring ecological restoration and energy supply; and (b) in order to balance water demands and support regional sustainable development, policymakers should sacrifice some of the benefits, set strict arable land limits for cereal crops, improve irrigation efficiency through adopting drip and sprinkler irrigation, and avoid the effects of the irrigation efficiency paradox. The findings are helpful for policymakers in gaining insight into the interrelationships of water, energy, food and ecosystems as well as making decisions for collaborative management of the WEFE nexus system.
Plain Language Summary
In Central Asia, water scarcity, food crisis, energy insecurity and ecological degradation are closely linked. Economic development and diminishing resources further exacerbate these problems. Therefore, a “nexus” concept is needed to analyze trade‐offs and synergize management to promote the efficient use of resources. However, the management process faces the problems of uncertain information and multiple decision makers with different preferences, which adds to the complexity of the management process. To address the above issues, this study develops a collaborative management model for the water‐energy‐food‐ecosystems (WEFE) nexus in Central Asia based on a multi‐level programming framework. Besides, the agricultural irrigation paradox is also considered in the developed model. The results find that to ensure food security and ecological restoration, decision makers need to forego some of the benefits and allocate more water resources to cereal crops and ecological uses. In addition, it is recommended that managers increase advanced irrigation methods, such as drip and sprinkler irrigation, but that care be taken to curb the irrigation efficiency paradox while increasing irrigation efficiency.
Key Points
We proposed an optimization method to plan the water‐energy‐food‐ecosystems nexus for Central Asia over a long‐planning horizon
The uncertain information expressed as randomness and vagueness were tackled during the planning process
The agricultural irrigation paradox is considered during the collaborative management, thus providing decision support to managers |
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| Bibliografie: | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 |
| ISSN: | 0043-1397 1944-7973 |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2023WR035166 |