The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics

This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on...

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Vydané v:	Journal of experimental psychology. Applied Ročník 21; číslo 1; s. 1
Hlavní autori:	Mellers, Barbara, Stone, Eric, Atanasov, Pavel, Rohrbaugh, Nick, Metz, S Emlen, Ungar, Lyle, Bishop, Michael M, Horowitz, Michael, Merkle, Ed, Tetlock, Philip
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	United States 01.03.2015
Predmet:	Adult Female Forecasting Humans Intelligence Judgment Male Models, Statistical Politics Probability Psychological Techniques
ISSN:	1939-2192, 1939-2192
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