Heating System Transitions in Cities: From Participatory Insights to Network Details in Spatially Resolved Energy Systems Modeling
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| Název: | Heating System Transitions in Cities: From Participatory Insights to Network Details in Spatially Resolved Energy Systems Modeling |
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| Autoři: | Yu, Hyunkyo, 1991 |
| Zdroj: | FlexSUS-Flexibility för Smarta Urbana EnergiSystem. |
| Témata: | Optimization, Waste heat, Participatory modeling, Urban heating transitions, District heating, Energy systems modeling, Heat decarbonization, Spatially explicit modeling |
| Popis: | Decarbonisation of heating in buildings is an important component of the European energy transition. While EU, national and regional policies set overarching targets, the planning and implementation of low-carbon heating solutions takes place largely at the municipal level, where supply and demand are shaped by localised spatial and infrastructural conditions. Yet, most energy system models and transition strategies treat the local spatial dimension only superficially, typically overlooking variations in building density, network coverage, infrastructure age, and proximity to local resources. These variations can decisively influence the cost-effectiveness and feasibility of heating technologies. Addressing heat planning at the municipal level allows for strategies tailored to these local spatial conditions and aligned with the practical realities faced by planners and decision-makers. This thesis develops and applies two methodological approaches for investigating municipal heating system transitions: a spatially explicit participatory modelling framework and a high-resolution techno-economic city energy system optimisation model. Together, these methods enable a multi-layered analysis of how spatial context, infrastructure conditions, and local resource availability shape cost-effective and sustainable heating transitions. The participatory modelling methodology, tested in urban and semi-rural Danish municipalities, consists of five steps. Step 1 Reviewing planning processes; Step 2 Inclusion of spatial features; Step 3 Scenario formulation; Step 4 Energy systems modelling; and Step 5 Evaluation of modelling outcomes. While stakeholders were engaged throughout the process, their participation was particularly critical in Steps 2 and 3, providing locally grounded definitions of spatial boundaries, technology scope, and planning priorities. This ensured that scenarios were aligned with institutional realities and local acceptability, while still enabling technically rigorous analysis. In the urban case, expanding district heating (DH) and using waste incineration heat until carbon neutrality proved cost-efficient, with late-stage power-to-heat investments dependent on carbon-free electricity. In the semi-rural case, using excess heat from local sources supported cost-effective DH expansion while biogas substitution for natural gas was not competitive. The city-scale optimisation model, applied to Gothenburg, Sweden, integrates high spatial and temporal resolution, and explicit representation of DH networks and electricity system. It examines how DH network refurbishment strategies and waste heat (WH) availability influence long-term system performance under carbon neutrality constraints. The results show that abundant, low-cost WH can stabilise DH’s role in the heating mix, while reduced or spatially concentrated WH availability leads to increased adoption of individual heat pumps. Refurbishment costs are generally a small share of total system costs, but their impact varies substantially across nodes depending on infrastructure age, demand density, and supply source proximity. Across both methods and case studies, the findings demonstrate that spatial heterogeneity is a determining factor in cost-optimal heating strategies. The integration of stakeholder perspectives ensures that technical results are not only spatially detailed but also institutionally relevant, bridging the gap between techno-economic optimisation and practical municipal planning. This thesis concludes that achieving cost-effective and sustainable heating transitions requires approaches that integrate spatial detail, infrastructure dynamics, and local institutional knowledge. Strategies must be spatially differentiated, resilient to resource uncertainty, and informed by both technical analysis and stakeholder priorities. With the participatory and technically detailed modelling, this work provide a basis for developing framworks for municipalities to design heating transitions that are both technically viable and grounded in the realities of local governance and infrastructure. |
| Popis souboru: | electronic |
| Přístupová URL adresa: | https://research.chalmers.se/publication/548071 https://research.chalmers.se/publication/548071/file/548071_Fulltext.pdf |
| Databáze: | SwePub |
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