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Disentangling future effects of climate change and forest disturbance on vegetation composition and land surface properties of the boreal forest

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Název: Disentangling future effects of climate change and forest disturbance on vegetation composition and land surface properties of the boreal forest
Autoři: Layritz, Lucia S., Gregor, Konstantin, Krause, Andreas, Kruse, Stefan, Meyer, Benjamin F., Pugh, Thomas A.M., Rammig, Anja
Přispěvatelé: Lund University, Profile areas and other strong research environments, Lund University Profile areas, LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions, Lunds universitet, Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer, Lunds universitets profilområden, LU profilområde: Naturbaserade framtidslösningar, Originator, Lund University, Profile areas and other strong research environments, Strategic research areas (SRA), MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system, Lunds universitet, Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer, Strategiska forskningsområden (SFO), MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system, Originator, Lund University, Profile areas and other strong research environments, Strategic research areas (SRA), BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate, Lunds universitet, Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer, Strategiska forskningsområden (SFO), BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate, Originator, Lund University, Faculty of Science, Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lunds universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap, Originator
Zdroj: Biogeosciences. 22(14):3635-3660
Témata: Agricultural and Veterinary sciences, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Forest Science, Lantbruksvetenskap och veterinärmedicin, Jordbruk, skogsbruk och fiske, Skogsvetenskap, Natural Sciences, Other Natural Sciences, Naturvetenskap, Annan naturvetenskap
Popis: Forest disturbances can cause shifts in boreal vegetation cover from predominantly evergreen to deciduous trees or non-forest dominance. This, in turn, impacts land surface properties and, potentially, regional climate. Accurately considering such shifts in future projections of vegetation dynamics under climate change is crucial but hindered (e.g., uncertainties in future disturbance regimes). In this study, we investigate how sensitive future projections of boreal forest dynamics are to additional changes in disturbance regimes. We use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to investigate and disentangle the impacts of climate change and intensifying disturbance regimes in future projections of boreal vegetation cover as well as changes in land surface properties such as albedo and evapotranspiration. Our simulations find that (1) warming alone drives shifts towards more densely forested landscapes, (2) more intense disturbances reduce tree cover in favor of shrubs and grasses, and (3) the interaction between climate and disturbances leads to an expansion of deciduous trees. Our results additionally indicate that warming decreases albedo and increases evapotranspiration, while more intense disturbances have the opposite effect, potentially offsetting climate impacts. Warming and disturbances are thus comparably important agents of change in boreal forests. Our findings highlight future disturbance regimes as a key source of model uncertainty and underscore the necessity of accounting for disturbances-induced effects on vegetation composition and land surface-atmosphere feedback.
Přístupová URL adresa: https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3635-2025
Databáze: SwePub
Popis
Abstrakt:Forest disturbances can cause shifts in boreal vegetation cover from predominantly evergreen to deciduous trees or non-forest dominance. This, in turn, impacts land surface properties and, potentially, regional climate. Accurately considering such shifts in future projections of vegetation dynamics under climate change is crucial but hindered (e.g., uncertainties in future disturbance regimes). In this study, we investigate how sensitive future projections of boreal forest dynamics are to additional changes in disturbance regimes. We use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to investigate and disentangle the impacts of climate change and intensifying disturbance regimes in future projections of boreal vegetation cover as well as changes in land surface properties such as albedo and evapotranspiration. Our simulations find that (1) warming alone drives shifts towards more densely forested landscapes, (2) more intense disturbances reduce tree cover in favor of shrubs and grasses, and (3) the interaction between climate and disturbances leads to an expansion of deciduous trees. Our results additionally indicate that warming decreases albedo and increases evapotranspiration, while more intense disturbances have the opposite effect, potentially offsetting climate impacts. Warming and disturbances are thus comparably important agents of change in boreal forests. Our findings highlight future disturbance regimes as a key source of model uncertainty and underscore the necessity of accounting for disturbances-induced effects on vegetation composition and land surface-atmosphere feedback.
ISSN:17264170
17264189
DOI:10.5194/bg-22-3635-2025