Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000-2020
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| Názov: | Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000-2020 |
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| Autori: | Zhang, Zhen, Poulter, Benjamin, Melton, Joe R., Riley, William J., Allen, George H., Beerling, David J., Bousquet, Philippe, Canadell, Josep G., Fluet-Chouinard, Etienne, Ciais, Philippe, Gedney, Nicola, Hopcroft, Peter O., Ito, Akihiko, Jackson, Robert B., Jain, Atul K., Jensen, Katherine, Joos, Fortunat, Kleinen, Thomas, Knox, Sara H., Li, Tingting, Li, Xin, Liu, Xiangyu, Mcdonald, Kyle, Mcnicol, Gavin, Miller, Paul A., Müller, Jurek, Patra, Prabir K., Peng, Changhui, Peng, Shushi, Qin, Zhangcai, Riggs, Ryan M., Saunois, Marielle, Sun, Qing, Tian, Hanqin, Xu, Xiaoming, Yao, Yuanzhi, Xi, Yi, Zhang, Wenxin, Zhu, Qing, Zhu, Qiuan, Zhuang, Qianlai |
| Prispievatelia: | Lund University, Profile areas and other strong research environments, Lund University Profile areas, LU Profile Area: Nature-based future solutions, Lunds universitet, Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer, Lunds universitets profilområden, LU profilområde: Naturbaserade framtidslösningar, Originator, Lund University, Faculty of Engineering, LTH, LTH Profile areas, LTH Profile Area: Aerosols, Lunds universitet, Lunds Tekniska Högskola, LTH profilområden, LTH profilområde: Aerosoler, Originator, Lund University, Profile areas and other strong research environments, Strategic research areas (SRA), eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration, Lunds universitet, Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer, Strategiska forskningsområden (SFO), eSSENCE: The e-Science Collaboration, Originator, Lund University, Faculty of Science, Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC), Lunds universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC), Originator, Lund University, Faculty of Science, Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lunds universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap, Originator, Lund University, Profile areas and other strong research environments, Strategic research areas (SRA), BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate, Lunds universitet, Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer, Strategiska forskningsområden (SFO), BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate, Originator, Lund University, Profile areas and other strong research environments, Strategic research areas (SRA), MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system, Lunds universitet, Profilområden och andra starka forskningsmiljöer, Strategiska forskningsområden (SFO), MERGE: ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system, Originator |
| Zdroj: | Biogeosciences. 22(1):305-321 |
| Predmety: | Natural Sciences, Earth and Related Environmental Sciences, Climate Science, Naturvetenskap, Geovetenskap och relaterad miljövetenskap, Klimatvetenskap |
| Popis: | Due to ongoing climate change, methane (CH4) emissions from vegetated wetlands are projected to increase during the 21st century, challenging climate mitigation efforts aimed at limiting global warming. However, despite reports of rising emission trends, a comprehensive evaluation and attribution of recent changes remains limited. Here we assessed global wetland CH4 emissions from 2000-2020 based on an ensemble of 16 process-based wetland models. Our results estimated global average wetland CH4 emissions at 158 ± 24 (mean ± 1σ) Tg CH4 yr-1 over a total annual average wetland area of 8.0 ± 2.0×106 km2 for the period 2010-2020, with an average increase of 6-7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2010-2019 compared to the average for 2000-2009. The increases in the four latitudinal bands of 90-30° S, 30° S-30° N, 30-60° N, and 60-90° N were 0.1-0.2, 3.6-3.7, 1.8-2.4, and 0.6-0.8 Tg CH4 yr-1, respectively, over the 2 decades. The modeled CH4 sensitivities to temperature show reasonable consistency with eddy-covariance-based measurements from 34 sites. Rising temperature was the primary driver of the increase, while precipitation and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations played secondary roles with high levels of uncertainty. These modeled results suggest that climate change is driving increased wetland CH4 emissions and that direct and sustained measurements are needed to monitor developments. |
| Prístupová URL adresa: | https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025 |
| Databáza: | SwePub |
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Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstrakt: | Due to ongoing climate change, methane (CH4) emissions from vegetated wetlands are projected to increase during the 21st century, challenging climate mitigation efforts aimed at limiting global warming. However, despite reports of rising emission trends, a comprehensive evaluation and attribution of recent changes remains limited. Here we assessed global wetland CH4 emissions from 2000-2020 based on an ensemble of 16 process-based wetland models. Our results estimated global average wetland CH4 emissions at 158 ± 24 (mean ± 1σ) Tg CH4 yr-1 over a total annual average wetland area of 8.0 ± 2.0×106 km2 for the period 2010-2020, with an average increase of 6-7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2010-2019 compared to the average for 2000-2009. The increases in the four latitudinal bands of 90-30° S, 30° S-30° N, 30-60° N, and 60-90° N were 0.1-0.2, 3.6-3.7, 1.8-2.4, and 0.6-0.8 Tg CH4 yr-1, respectively, over the 2 decades. The modeled CH4 sensitivities to temperature show reasonable consistency with eddy-covariance-based measurements from 34 sites. Rising temperature was the primary driver of the increase, while precipitation and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations played secondary roles with high levels of uncertainty. These modeled results suggest that climate change is driving increased wetland CH4 emissions and that direct and sustained measurements are needed to monitor developments. |
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| ISSN: | 17264170 17264189 |
| DOI: | 10.5194/bg-22-305-2025 |