Zobrazit v EDS

Vulnerability of Gubernatrix cristata to climate change, anthropogenic pressures, and hybridization threats

Uloženo v:
Podrobná bibliografie
Název: Vulnerability of Gubernatrix cristata to climate change, anthropogenic pressures, and hybridization threats
Autoři: Regina Gabriela Medina, Marisol Domínguez
Zdroj: Scientific Reports, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2025)
Informace o vydavateli: Nature Portfolio, 2025.
Rok vydání: 2025
Sbírka: LCC:Medicine
LCC:Science
Témata: Risk map, Diuca diuca, Human footprint, Protected areas, Geographic range loss, Ecological niche modeling, Medicine, Science
Popis: Abstract Estimating extinction risk is challenging due to insufficient data on current and future threats. This study develops a framework incorporating the impacts of climate change, anthropogenic pressures, and biotic interactions for assessing extinction risks using the endangered Yellow Cardinal (Gubernatrix cristata) as a case study. Using ecological niche modeling (ENM) with occurrences, climate, and land use data, we projected current and future distributions of G. cristata, identifying key constraints for its occurrence. Field validation through a citizen science initiative contributed new presence records, supporting our model’s predictions. Currently, 4.50% of cardinal’s suitable areas overlap with areas of high anthropic pressures, while 27.04% are in contact with the hybridizing species Diuca diuca. Future projections predict a 60% shift in the cardinal’s distribution, exacerbating its vulnerability due to greater overlap with areas of high anthropic pressures and reduced presence in protected areas. We identified key risk areas on the distribution’s periphery, vulnerable to geographic range loss and increased interaction with D. diuca due to climate change. Targeted management actions are recommended to mitigate further degradation. This study illustrates the potential of integrating citizen science, ENM, and anthropogenic and biotic pressures to develop conservation strategies, offering a versatile, universally applicable framework crucial for global biodiversity and conservation efforts.
Druh dokumentu: article
Popis souboru: electronic resource
Jazyk: English
ISSN: 2045-2322
Relation: https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-94293-7
Přístupová URL adresa: https://doaj.org/article/789537e2709644718f04e77804e22919
Přístupové číslo: edsdoj.789537e2709644718f04e77804e22919
Databáze: Directory of Open Access Journals
Popis
Abstrakt:Abstract Estimating extinction risk is challenging due to insufficient data on current and future threats. This study develops a framework incorporating the impacts of climate change, anthropogenic pressures, and biotic interactions for assessing extinction risks using the endangered Yellow Cardinal (Gubernatrix cristata) as a case study. Using ecological niche modeling (ENM) with occurrences, climate, and land use data, we projected current and future distributions of G. cristata, identifying key constraints for its occurrence. Field validation through a citizen science initiative contributed new presence records, supporting our model’s predictions. Currently, 4.50% of cardinal’s suitable areas overlap with areas of high anthropic pressures, while 27.04% are in contact with the hybridizing species Diuca diuca. Future projections predict a 60% shift in the cardinal’s distribution, exacerbating its vulnerability due to greater overlap with areas of high anthropic pressures and reduced presence in protected areas. We identified key risk areas on the distribution’s periphery, vulnerable to geographic range loss and increased interaction with D. diuca due to climate change. Targeted management actions are recommended to mitigate further degradation. This study illustrates the potential of integrating citizen science, ENM, and anthropogenic and biotic pressures to develop conservation strategies, offering a versatile, universally applicable framework crucial for global biodiversity and conservation efforts.
ISSN:20452322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-94293-7