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Spatiotemporal dynamics and conservation status of medicinal Aconitum species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under climate change

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Spatiotemporal dynamics and conservation status of medicinal Aconitum species on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under climate change
Authors: Xiaoping Li, Guoying Zhou
Source: Global Ecology and Conservation, Vol 64, Iss , Pp e03937- (2025)
Publisher Information: Elsevier, 2025.
Publication Year: 2025
Collection: LCC:Ecology
Subject Terms: Aconitum, Ecological niche modeling, Ensemble model, Climate change, Geographical distribution patterns, Conservation status, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Description: Aconitum species, distributed across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, possess significant medicinal and economic value. However, their conservation remains inadequately understood, particularly in the context of ongoing and future climate change. This study assessed the spatial and temporal dynamics of 14 Aconitum species by integrating ecological niche modeling with conservation planning. Using 846 occurrence records and 16 environmental variables, we applied an optimized maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and the ensemble biomod2 framework to predict potential habitat suitability across 18 Mid-Holocene (MH), present, and future climate scenarios. Our results revealed that biomod2 outperformed MaxEnt in prediction accuracy. Isothermality (BIO3) emerged as the most influential environmental predictor. Most species exhibited range expansion from the MH to the present and underwent dynamic shifts under future climate projections, both expansions and contractions. A consistent northward and upward (high-elevation) migration trend was observed across scenarios. Ecological niche indices also increased under present and future climates relative to the MH, suggesting altered niche breadths in response to environmental change. Despite these shifts, all species were assigned a medium priority (MP) conservation status. Threat assessments categorized 11 species as endangered (EN) and three as vulnerable (VU). Importantly, areas of the highest species richness, particularly the Hengduan Mountains, remain underrepresented in the current protected area network. These findings underscore the urgent need for expanding conservation efforts and protected areas in biodiversity hotspots. By elucidating the climate-driven distributional responses of Aconitum species, this study provides a critical foundation for the future conservation and sustainable management of these valuable medicinal resources on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
Document Type: article
File Description: electronic resource
Language: English
ISSN: 2351-9894
Relation: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989425005396; https://doaj.org/toc/2351-9894
DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2025.e03937
Access URL: https://doaj.org/article/2b09de8323044c5fb626b15756d7639a
Accession Number: edsdoj.2b09de8323044c5fb626b15756d7639a
Database: Directory of Open Access Journals
Description
Abstract:Aconitum species, distributed across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, possess significant medicinal and economic value. However, their conservation remains inadequately understood, particularly in the context of ongoing and future climate change. This study assessed the spatial and temporal dynamics of 14 Aconitum species by integrating ecological niche modeling with conservation planning. Using 846 occurrence records and 16 environmental variables, we applied an optimized maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and the ensemble biomod2 framework to predict potential habitat suitability across 18 Mid-Holocene (MH), present, and future climate scenarios. Our results revealed that biomod2 outperformed MaxEnt in prediction accuracy. Isothermality (BIO3) emerged as the most influential environmental predictor. Most species exhibited range expansion from the MH to the present and underwent dynamic shifts under future climate projections, both expansions and contractions. A consistent northward and upward (high-elevation) migration trend was observed across scenarios. Ecological niche indices also increased under present and future climates relative to the MH, suggesting altered niche breadths in response to environmental change. Despite these shifts, all species were assigned a medium priority (MP) conservation status. Threat assessments categorized 11 species as endangered (EN) and three as vulnerable (VU). Importantly, areas of the highest species richness, particularly the Hengduan Mountains, remain underrepresented in the current protected area network. These findings underscore the urgent need for expanding conservation efforts and protected areas in biodiversity hotspots. By elucidating the climate-driven distributional responses of Aconitum species, this study provides a critical foundation for the future conservation and sustainable management of these valuable medicinal resources on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
ISSN:23519894
DOI:10.1016/j.gecco.2025.e03937