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Estimation of Cancer Incidence Trends Adjusted for Changes in Screening and Detection Processes.

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Estimation of Cancer Incidence Trends Adjusted for Changes in Screening and Detection Processes.
Authors: Trächsel, B., Rousson, V., Bulliard, J.L., Locatelli, I.
Publication Year: 2025
Collection: Université de Lausanne (UNIL): Serval - Serveur académique lausannois
Subject Terms: Humans, Incidence, Female, Breast Neoplasms/epidemiology, Breast Neoplasms/diagnosis, Early Detection of Cancer/statistics & numerical data, Neoplasms/epidemiology, Neoplasms/diagnosis, Models, Statistical, Switzerland/epidemiology, Registries, Mass Screening/statistics & numerical data, Computer Simulation, Almon distributed lag model, cancer incidence, screening adjusted, trends
Description: Cancer is a major public health issue, and monitoring its incidence is important to suggest and evaluate the impact of preventive interventions. However, estimating trends in cancer incidence is often difficult due to changes in screening or other detection processes over time, which can artificially inflate or deflate the observed incidences. We propose a new method for estimating trends in cancer incidence adjusted for such changes, using a constrained Almon distributed lag model. Unlike other approaches, our method does not rely on any knowledge of cancer progression, or detailed evolution of screening practice over time. It requires the registration of the stages (I-IV) of detected cancers while assuming that the distribution of these stages remains constant in the absence of any change in screening practice. Our method is able to recover the real underlying cancer incidence in simulated data reproducing either no change or a gradual or sudden change in screening practice. For illustration, it is applied to registry data from the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, to estimate breast cancer incidence for the period 1991-2016, where it downwardly corrects the observed incidence when an organized screening program was started.
Document Type: article in journal/newspaper
Language: English
ISSN: 1097-0258
Relation: Statistics in Medicine; https://iris.unil.ch/handle/iris/130996; serval:BIB_6623F5FB901F; 001461933700001
DOI: 10.1002/sim.70063
Availability: https://iris.unil.ch/handle/iris/130996
https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.70063
Accession Number: edsbas.73F6B973
Database: BASE
Description
Abstract:Cancer is a major public health issue, and monitoring its incidence is important to suggest and evaluate the impact of preventive interventions. However, estimating trends in cancer incidence is often difficult due to changes in screening or other detection processes over time, which can artificially inflate or deflate the observed incidences. We propose a new method for estimating trends in cancer incidence adjusted for such changes, using a constrained Almon distributed lag model. Unlike other approaches, our method does not rely on any knowledge of cancer progression, or detailed evolution of screening practice over time. It requires the registration of the stages (I-IV) of detected cancers while assuming that the distribution of these stages remains constant in the absence of any change in screening practice. Our method is able to recover the real underlying cancer incidence in simulated data reproducing either no change or a gradual or sudden change in screening practice. For illustration, it is applied to registry data from the canton of Geneva, Switzerland, to estimate breast cancer incidence for the period 1991-2016, where it downwardly corrects the observed incidence when an organized screening program was started.
ISSN:10970258
DOI:10.1002/sim.70063