Global excess deaths associated with heatwaves in 2023 and the contribution of human-induced climate change
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| Názov: | Global excess deaths associated with heatwaves in 2023 and the contribution of human-induced climate change |
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| Autori: | Hundessa, Samuel, Huang, Wenzhong, Xu, Rongbin, Yang, Zhengyu, Zhao, Qi, Gasparrini, Antonio, Armstrong, Ben, Bell, Michelle L., Huber, Veronika, Urban, Aleš, Coelho, Micheline, Sera, Francesco, Tong, Shilu, Royé, Dominic, Kyselý, Jan, de'Donato, Francesca, Mistry, Malcolm, Tobías, Aurelio, Íñiguez, Carmen, Ragettli, Martina S., Hales, Simon, Achilleos, Souzana, Klompmaker, Jochem, Li, Shanshan, Guo, Yuming |
| Prispievatelia: | European Commission, Australian Research Council, China Scholarship Council, Monash University, Shanghai Municipal Natural Science Foundation, Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (Czech Republic), Medical Research Council (UK), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Yang, Zhengyu, Armstrong, Ben, Bell, Michelle L., Coelho, Micheline, Sera, Francesco, Tobías, Aurelio, Huber, Veronika, Royé, Dominic, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas https://ror.org/02gfc7t72 |
| Informácie o vydavateľovi: | Elsevier |
| Rok vydania: | 2025 |
| Zbierka: | Digital.CSIC (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas / Spanish National Research Council) |
| Predmety: | Human-induced climate change, All-cause mortality, Death rate, Excess death, Global burden of disease, Heatwaves, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/11, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/3, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/9, Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages, Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation, Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable |
| Popis: | No new data were created or analyzed in this study ; An unprecedented heatwave swept the globe in 2023, marking it one of the hottest years on record and raising concerns about its health impacts. However, a comprehensive assessment of the heatwave-related mortality and its attribution to human-induced climate change remains lacking. We aim to address this gap by analyzing high-resolution climate and mortality data from 2,013 locations across 67 countries/territories using a three-stage modeling approach. First, we estimated historical heatwave-mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression model with distributed lag structures, considering lag effects, seasonality, and within-week variations. Second, we pooled the estimates in meta-regression, accounting for spatial heterogeneity and potential changes in heatwave-mortality associations over time. Third, we predicted grid-specific (0.5 0.5) association in 2023 and calculated the heatwave-related excess deaths, death ratio, and death rate per million people. Attribution analysis was conducted by comparing heatwave-related mortality under factual and counterfactual climate scenarios. We estimated 178,486 excess deaths (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI], 159,892≥204,147) related to the 2023 heatwave, accounting for 0.73% of global deaths, corresponding to 23 deaths per million people. The highest mortality rates occurred in Southern (120, 95% eCI, 116≥126), Eastern (107, 95% eCI, 100≥114), and Western Europe (66, 95% eCI, 62≥70), where the excess death ratio was also higher. Notably, 54.29% (95% eCI, 45.71%≥61.36%) of the global heatwave-related deaths were attributable to human-induced climate change. These results underscore the urgent need for adaptive public health interventions and climate mitigation strategies to reduce future mortality burdens in the context of increasing global warming. ; This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP2000581). W.H. ... |
| Druh dokumentu: | article in journal/newspaper |
| Popis súboru: | application/pdf |
| Jazyk: | English |
| Relation: | #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820655; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI//RYC2022-036948-I; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110; Sí; The Innovation 6(10): 101110 (2025); https://hdl.handle.net/10261/402498; http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780; http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000923; http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001779; http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004837; http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265; http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004543; https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105017659374 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110 |
| DOI: | 10.13039/501100000780 |
| DOI: | 10.13039/501100000923 |
| DOI: | 10.13039/501100001779 |
| DOI: | 10.13039/501100004837 |
| DOI: | 10.13039/501100000265 |
| DOI: | 10.13039/501100004543 |
| Dostupnosť: | https://hdl.handle.net/10261/402498 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000923 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001779 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000265 https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004543 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105017659374 |
| Rights: | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| Prístupové číslo: | edsbas.3AF0ADE4 |
| Databáza: | BASE |
Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstrakt: | No new data were created or analyzed in this study ; An unprecedented heatwave swept the globe in 2023, marking it one of the hottest years on record and raising concerns about its health impacts. However, a comprehensive assessment of the heatwave-related mortality and its attribution to human-induced climate change remains lacking. We aim to address this gap by analyzing high-resolution climate and mortality data from 2,013 locations across 67 countries/territories using a three-stage modeling approach. First, we estimated historical heatwave-mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression model with distributed lag structures, considering lag effects, seasonality, and within-week variations. Second, we pooled the estimates in meta-regression, accounting for spatial heterogeneity and potential changes in heatwave-mortality associations over time. Third, we predicted grid-specific (0.5 0.5) association in 2023 and calculated the heatwave-related excess deaths, death ratio, and death rate per million people. Attribution analysis was conducted by comparing heatwave-related mortality under factual and counterfactual climate scenarios. We estimated 178,486 excess deaths (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI], 159,892≥204,147) related to the 2023 heatwave, accounting for 0.73% of global deaths, corresponding to 23 deaths per million people. The highest mortality rates occurred in Southern (120, 95% eCI, 116≥126), Eastern (107, 95% eCI, 100≥114), and Western Europe (66, 95% eCI, 62≥70), where the excess death ratio was also higher. Notably, 54.29% (95% eCI, 45.71%≥61.36%) of the global heatwave-related deaths were attributable to human-induced climate change. These results underscore the urgent need for adaptive public health interventions and climate mitigation strategies to reduce future mortality burdens in the context of increasing global warming. ; This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (DP210102076) and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP2000581). W.H. ... |
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| DOI: | 10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110 |