Uncertainty quantification for severe-accident reactor modelling: Results and conclusions of the MUSA reactor applications work package
Saved in:
| Title: | Uncertainty quantification for severe-accident reactor modelling: Results and conclusions of the MUSA reactor applications work package |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Brumm, S., Gabrielli, F., Sanchez Espinoza, V., Stakhanova, A., Groudev, P., Petrova, P., Vryashkova, P., Ou, P., Zhang, W., Malkhasyan, A., Herranz, L.E., Iglesias Ferrer, R., Angelucci, M., Berdaï, M., Mascari, F., Agnello, G., Sevbo, O., Iskra, A., Martinez Quiroga, Victor, Nudi, M., Hoefer, A., Pauli, E.-M., Beck, S., Tiborcz, L., Coindreau, Olivia, Clark, G., Lamont, I., Zheng, X., Kubo, K., Lee, B., Valincius, M., Malicki, M., Lind, T., Vorobyov, Y., Kotsuba, O., Di Giuli, M., Ivanov, I., D’onorio, M., Giannetti, F., Sevon, T. |
| Contributors: | European Commission - Joint Research Centre Petten (JRC), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology = Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Institute For Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy (INRNE), Bulgarian Academy of Sciences = Académie bulgare des sciences Académie des sciences de Bulgarie = Българска академия на науките (BAS), Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy (INRNE), CNPRI, BEL V, Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas (CIEMAT), Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC), Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Italian National agency for new technologies, Energy and sustainable economic development Frascati (ENEA), Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile = Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Energorisk LLC, Energy Software S. L. (ENSO), Electric Power Research Institute, (EPRI), Electric Power Research Institute, Framatome GmbH, Gesellschaft für Anlagen - und Reaktorsicherheit Köln (GRS), GRS, (Garching), Laboratoire d'étude de transfert des radioéléments (ASNR/PSN-RES/SAM/LETR), Service des Accidents Majeurs (ASNR/PSN-RES/SAM), Autorité de Sûreté Nucléaire et de Radioprotection (ASNR)-Autorité de Sûreté Nucléaire et de Radioprotection (ASNR), Jacobs, Japan Atomic Energy Agency Ibaraki (JAEA), Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute Daejeon, south Korea (KAERI), Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI), Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), SSTC NRS (Vasylya Stusa St, 35-37, Kyiv, Ukraine), Tractebel engineering, TUS, Technical University of Sofia Bulgaria (TU-Sofia), Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University Rome (UNIROMA), VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire - IRSN, European Project: 847441,Euratom |
| Source: | ISSN: 0306-4549 ; Annals of Nuclear Energy ; https://hal.science/hal-04777159 ; Annals of Nuclear Energy, 2025, 211, pp.110962. ⟨10.1016/j.anucene.2024.110962⟩. |
| Publisher Information: | CCSD Elsevier Masson |
| Publication Year: | 2025 |
| Collection: | IRSN (Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire): Publications (HAL |
| Subject Terms: | Nuclear reactor, Severe accident, Modelling, Uncertainty quantification, MUSA, Source Term, [PHYS]Physics [physics], [SPI]Engineering Sciences [physics], [STAT]Statistics [stat] |
| Description: | International audience ; The recently completed Horizon-2020 project “Management and Uncertainties of Severe Accidents (MUSA)” has reviewed uncertainty sources and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for assessing Severe Accidents (SA), and has made a substantial effort at stimulating uncertainty applications in predicting the radiological Source Term of reactor and Spent Fuel Pool accident scenarios.The key motivation of the project has been to bring the advantages of the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty approach to the field of Severe Accident modelling. With respect to deterministic analyses, expected gains are avoiding adopting conservative assumptions, identifying uncertainty bands of estimates, and gaining insights into dominating uncertain parameters. Also, the benefits for understanding and improving Accident Management were to be explored.The reactor applications brought together a large group of participants that set out to apply uncertainty analysis (UA) within their field of SA modelling expertise – in particular reactor types, but also SA code used (ASTEC, MELCOR, MAAP, RELAP/SCDAPSIM), uncertainty quantification tools used (DAKOTA, SUSA, URANIE, self-developed tools based on Python code), detailed accident scenarios, and in some cases SAM actions. The setting up of the analyses, challenges faced during that phase, and solutions explored, are described in Brumm et al. ANE 191 (2023).This paper synthesizes the reactor-application work at the end of the project. Analyses of 23 partners are presented in different categories, depending on whether their main goal is/are (i) uncertainty bands of simulation results; (ii) the understanding of dominating uncertainties in specific sub-models of the SA code; (iii) improving the understanding of specific accident scenarios, with or without the application of SAM actions; or, (iv) a demonstration of the tools used and developed, and of the capability to carry out an uncertainty analysis in the presence of the challenges faced.A cross-section of the partners’ ... |
| Document Type: | article in journal/newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Relation: | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//847441/EU/Euratom research and training programme 2014 – 2018/Euratom |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.anucene.2024.110962 |
| Availability: | https://hal.science/hal-04777159 https://hal.science/hal-04777159v1/document https://hal.science/hal-04777159v1/file/Final_version_ANE20225.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anucene.2024.110962 |
| Rights: | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/ ; info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
| Accession Number: | edsbas.26A82A53 |
| Database: | BASE |
Nájsť tento článok vo Web of Science | Abstract: | International audience ; The recently completed Horizon-2020 project “Management and Uncertainties of Severe Accidents (MUSA)” has reviewed uncertainty sources and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for assessing Severe Accidents (SA), and has made a substantial effort at stimulating uncertainty applications in predicting the radiological Source Term of reactor and Spent Fuel Pool accident scenarios.The key motivation of the project has been to bring the advantages of the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty approach to the field of Severe Accident modelling. With respect to deterministic analyses, expected gains are avoiding adopting conservative assumptions, identifying uncertainty bands of estimates, and gaining insights into dominating uncertain parameters. Also, the benefits for understanding and improving Accident Management were to be explored.The reactor applications brought together a large group of participants that set out to apply uncertainty analysis (UA) within their field of SA modelling expertise – in particular reactor types, but also SA code used (ASTEC, MELCOR, MAAP, RELAP/SCDAPSIM), uncertainty quantification tools used (DAKOTA, SUSA, URANIE, self-developed tools based on Python code), detailed accident scenarios, and in some cases SAM actions. The setting up of the analyses, challenges faced during that phase, and solutions explored, are described in Brumm et al. ANE 191 (2023).This paper synthesizes the reactor-application work at the end of the project. Analyses of 23 partners are presented in different categories, depending on whether their main goal is/are (i) uncertainty bands of simulation results; (ii) the understanding of dominating uncertainties in specific sub-models of the SA code; (iii) improving the understanding of specific accident scenarios, with or without the application of SAM actions; or, (iv) a demonstration of the tools used and developed, and of the capability to carry out an uncertainty analysis in the presence of the challenges faced.A cross-section of the partners’ ... |
|---|---|
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.anucene.2024.110962 |