Podrobná bibliografie
| Název: |
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| Autoři: |
Vollset, Stein Emil Ababneh, Hazim S. Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abbafati, Cristiana Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh Abbasian, Mohammadreza Abbastabar, Hedayat Abd Al Magied, Abdallah H.A. ElHafeez, Samar Abd Abdelkader, Atef Abdelmasseh, Michael Abd-Elsalam, Sherief Abdi, Parsa Abdollahi, Mohammad Abdoun, Meriem Abdullahi, Auwal Abebe, Mesfin Abiodun, Olumide Aboagye, Richard Gyan Abolhassani, Hassan Abouzid, Mohamed Aboye, Girma Beressa Abreu, Lucas Guimarães Absalan, Abdorrahim Abualruz, Hasan Abubakar, Bilyaminu Abukhadijah, Hana Jihad Jihad Addolorato, Giovanni Adekanmbi, Victor Adetunji, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther Adha, Rishan Adhikary, Ripon Kumar Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adzigbli, Leticia Akua Afrashteh, Fatemeh Afzal, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Agbozo, Faith Agodi, Antonella Agrawal, Anurag Agyemang-Duah, Williams Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku Ahlstrom, Austin J. Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M. Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Shahzaib Ahmed, Anisuddin Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Safoora Ahmed, Syed Anees Akinosoglou, Karolina Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed Akrami, Ashley E. Akter, Ema Awaidy, Salah Al Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz Al Mosa, Amjad S. Al Ta'ani, Omar Al Zaabi, Omar Ali Mohammed Alahdab, Fares Alajlani, Muaaz M. Al-Ajlouni, Yazan Alalalmeh, Samer O. Al-Aly, Ziyad Alam, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Tahiya Alam, Zufishan Al-Amer, Rasmieh Mustafa Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour Alanzi, Turki M. Albakri, Almaza Aldhaleei, Wafa A. Aldridge, Robert W. Alemohammad, Seyedeh Yasaman Alemu, Yihun Mulugeta Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed Al-Hanawi, Mohammed Khaled Ali, Abid Ali, Amjad Ali, Iman Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Victor Ekoche Ali, Waad Al-Ibraheem, Akram Alicandro, Gianfranco Alif, Sheikh Mohammad Aljunid, Syed Mohamed Alla, François Almazan, Joseph Uy Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. Alqutaibi, Ahmed Yaseen Alrawashdeh, Ahmad Alrousan, Sahel Majed Al-Sabah, Salman Khalifah Alsabri, Mohammed A. Altaany, Zaid Al-Tammemi, Ala'a B. Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A. Altirkawi, Khalid A. Aluh, Deborah Oyine Alvis-Guzman, Nelson Al-Wardat, Mohammad Sami Al-Worafi, Yaser Mohammed Aly, Hany Alyahya, Mohammad Sharif Alzoubi, Karem H. Al-Zyoud, Walid Amani, Reza Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena Amin, Tarek Tawfik Amindarolzarbi, Alireza Amiri, Sohrab Amirzade-Iranaq, Mohammad Hosein Amu, Hubert Amugsi, Dickson A. Ancuceanu, Robert Anderlini, Deanna Anderson, David B. Andrade, Pedro Prata Andrei, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrews, Erick Adrian Anil, Abhishek Anil, Sneha Anoushiravani, Amir Antony, Catherine M. Antriyandarti, Ernoiz Anuoluwa, Boluwatife Stephen Anvari, Saeid Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward Appiah, Francis Aquilano, Michele Arab, Juan Pablo Arabloo, Jalal Arafa, Elshaimaa A. Arafat, Mosab Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. Ardekani, Ali Areda, Demelash Aregawi, Brhane Berhe Aremu, Abdulfatai Ariffin, Hany Arkew, Mesay Armani, Keivan Artamonov, Anton A. Arumugam, Ashokan Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad Ashbaugh, Charlie Astell-Burt, Thomas Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Atorkey, Prince Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Aujayeb, Avinash Ausloos, Marcel Awad, Hamzeh Awotidebe, Adedapo Wasiu Ayatollahi, Haleh Ayuso-Mateos, Jose L. Azadnajafabad, Sina Azeez, Fahad Khan Azevedo, Rui M.S. Badar, Muhammad Baghdadi, Soroush Bagheri, Mahboube Bagheri, Nasser Bai, Ruhai Baker, Jennifer L. Bako, Abdulaziz T. Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar Balcha, Wondu Feyisa Baltatu, Ovidiu Constantin Barchitta, Martina Bardideh, Erfan Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn Bärnighausen, Till Winfried Barqawi, Hiba Jawdat Barteit, Sandra Basiru, Afisu Basso, João Diogo Bastan, Mohammad-Mahdi Basu, Sanjay Bauckneht, Matteo Baune, Bernhard T. Bayati, Mohsen Bayileyegn, Nebiyou Simegnew Behnoush, Amir Hossein Behzadi, Payam Beiranvand, Maryam Bello, Olorunjuwon Omolaja Belo, Luis Beloukas, Apostolos Bemanalizadeh, Maryam Bensenor, Isabela M. Benzian, Habib Beran, Azizullah Berezvai, Zombor Bernstein, Robert S. Bettencourt, Paulo J.G. Beyene, Kebede A. Beyene, Melak Gedamu Bhagat, Devidas S. Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth Bhala, Neeraj Bhandari, Dinesh Bharadwaj, Ravi Bhardwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhargava, Ashish Bhaskar, Sonu Bhat, Vivek Bhattacharjee, Natalia V. Bhatti, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Manpreet S. Bhuiyan, Mohiuddin Ahmed Bisignano, Catherine Biswas, Bijit Bjørge, Tone Bodolica, Virginia Bodunrin, Aadam Olalekan Hashemi, Milad Bonakdar Basara, Berrak Bora Borhany, Hamed Bosoka, Samuel Adolf Carvajal, Alejandro Botero Bouaoud, Souad Boufous, Soufiane Boxe, Christopher Boyko, Edward J. Brady, Oliver J. Braithwaite, Dejana Brauer, Michael Brazo-Sayavera, Javier Brenner, Hermann Brown, Colin Stewart Browne, Annie J. Brugha, Traolach Bryazka, Dana Bulamu, Norma B. Buonsenso, Danilo Burkart, Katrin Burns, Richard A. Busse, Reinhard Bustanji, Yasser Butt, Zahid A. dos Santos, Florentino Luciano Caetano Barsbay, Mehtap Çakmak Calina, Daniela Campos, Luciana Aparecida Cao, Shujin Capodici, Angelo Cárdenas, Rosario Carreras, Giulia Carugno, Andrea Carvalho, Márcia Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio Castelpietra, Giulio Cattaruzza, Maria Sofia Caye, Arthur Cegolon, Luca Cembranel, Francieli Cenko, Edina Cerin, Ester Chadban, Steven J. Chadwick, Joshua Chakraborty, Chiranjib Chakraborty, Sandip Chalek, Julian Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chandika, Rama Mohan Chandy, Sara Charan, Jaykaran Chaudhary, Anis Ahmad Chaurasia, Akhilanand Chen, An-Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Meng Xuan Chen, Simiao Cherbuin, Nicolas Chi, Gerald Chichagi, Fatemeh Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel Chimoriya, Ritesh Ching, Patrick R. Chirinos-Caceres, Jesus Lorenzo Chitheer, Abdulaal Cho, Daniel Youngwhan Cho, William C.S. Choi, Dong-Woo Chong, Bryan Chong, Chean Lin Chopra, Hitesh Chu, Dinh-Toi Chung, Eric Chutiyami, Muhammad Clayton, Justin T. Cogen, Rebecca M. Cohen, Aaron J. Columbus, Alyssa Comfort, Haley Conde, Joao Connolly, Jon T. Cooper, Ezra E.K. Cortese, Samuele Cruz-Martins, Natália da Silva, Alanna Gomes Dadras, Omid Dai, Xiaochen Dai, Zhaoli Dalton, Bronte E. Damiani, Giovanni Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Das, Jai K. Das, Saswati Das, Subasish Dash, Nihar Ranjan Davletov, Kairat De la Hoz, Fernando Pio De Leo, Diego Debopadhaya, Shayom Delgado-Enciso, Ivan Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar Dervenis, Nikolaos Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai Devanbu, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Dewan, Syed Masudur Rahman Dhama, Kuldeep Dhane, Amol S. Dhingra, Sameer da Silva, Diana Dias Diaz, Daniel Diaz, Luis Antonio Diaz, Michael J. Dima, Adriana Ding, Delaney D. Do, Thao Huynh Phuong do Prado, Camila Bruneli Dodangeh, Masoud Dodangeh, Milad Doegah, Phidelia Theresa Dohare, Sushil Dong, Wanyue D'Oria, Mario Doshi, Rajkumar Dowou, Robert Kokou Dsouza, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Viola Dube, John Dumith, Samuel C. Duncan, Bruce B. Duraes, Andre Rodrigues Duraisamy, Senbagam Durojaiye, Oyewole Christopher Dushpanova, Anar Dutta, Sulagna Dzianach, Paulina Agnieszka Dziedzic, Arkadiusz Marian Eboreime, Ejemai Ebrahimi, Alireza Kalan, Mohammad Ebrahimi Edinur, Hisham Atan Efendi, Ferry Eikemo, Terje Andreas Eini, Ebrahim Ekundayo, Temitope Cyrus El Arab, Rabie Adel Sayed, Iman El Elamin, Osman Elemam, Noha Mousaad ElGohary, Ghada Metwally Tawfik Elhadi, Muhammed Elmeligy, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmoselhi, Adel B. Elshaer, Mohammed Elsohaby, Ibrahim Eltahir, Elmagzoub Emeto, Theophilus I. Eshrati, Babak Eslami, Majid Esmaeili, Zahra Fabin, Natalia Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis Fagbule, Omotayo Francis Falzone, Luca Fareed, Mohammad e Sá Farinha, Carla Sofia Faris, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faro, Andre Fasihi, Kiana Fatehizadeh, Ali Fauk, Nelsensius Klau Fazylov, Timur Feigin, Valery L. Fekadu, Ginenus Feng, Xiaoqi Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad Ferrara, Pietro Ferreira, Nuno Firew, Belete Sewasew Fischer, Florian Fitriana, Ida Flavel, Joanne Flor, Luisa S. Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin Foley, Kristen Marie Fonzo, Marco Force, Lisa M. Foschi, Matteo Freitas, Alberto Fridayani, Ni Kadek Yuni Fukutaki, Kai Glenn Furtado, João M. Fux, Blima Gaal, Peter Andras Gadanya, Muktar A. Gallus, Silvano Ganesan, Balasankar Ganiyani, Mohammad Arfat Gautam, Rupesh K. Gebi, Tilaye Gebru Gebregergis, Miglas W. Gebrehiwot, Mesfin Getacher, Lemma Getahun, Genanew K.A. Gething, Peter W. Ghadimi, Delaram J. Ghadirian, Fataneh Ghafarian, Sadegh Ghailan, Khalid Yaser Ghasemi, MohammadReza Dabaghi, Ghazal Ghasempour Ghazy, Ramy Mohamed Ghoba, Sama Gholami, Ehsan Gholamrezanezhad, Ali Gholizadeh, Nasim Ghorbani, Mahsa Vajargah, Pooyan Ghorbani Ghotbi, Elena Gil, Artyom Urievich Gill, Tiffany K. Girmay, Alem Glasbey, James C. Glushkova, Ekaterina Vladimirovna Gnedovskaya, Elena V. Göbölös, Laszlo Goldust, Mohamad Goleij, Pouya Golinelli, Davide Gopalani, Sameer Vali Goulart, Alessandra C. Gouravani, Mahdi Goyal, Anmol Grivna, Michal Grosso, Giuseppe Guarducci, Giovanni Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Guicciardi, Stefano Guimarães, Rafael Alves Gulati, Snigdha Gulisashvili, David Gunawardane, Damitha Asanga Guo, Cui Gupta, Anish Kumar Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Renu Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Vijai Kumar Haakenstad, Annie Hadi, Najah R. Haep, Nils Hafiz, Abdul Haghmorad, Dariush Haile, Demewoz Ali, Adel Hajj Ali, Ali Hajj Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin Halboub, Esam S. Haller, Sebastian Halwani, Rabih Abdullah, Kanaan Hamagharib Hamdy, Nadia M. Hamoudi, Rifat Hanifi, Nasrin Hankey, Graeme J. Haq, Zaim Anan Haque, Md Rabiul Harapan, Harapan Hargono, Arief Haro, Josep Maria Hasaballah, Ahmed I. Hasan, S.M. Mahmudul Hasanian, Mohammad Hasnain, Md Saquib Hassan, Amr Haubold, Johannes Hay, Simon I. Hebert, Jeffrey J. Hegazi, Omar E. Heidari, Mohammad Hemmati, Mehdi Henson, Claire A. Herrera-Serna, Brenda Yuliana Herteliu, Claudiu Heydari, Majid Hezam, Kamal Hidayana, Irma Hiraike, Yuta Hoan, Nguyen Quoc Holla, Ramesh Hoogar, Praveen Horita, Nobuyuki Hossain, Md Mahbub Hosseinzadeh, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hostiuc, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hu, Chengxi Huang, Junjie Hultström, Michael Hundie, Tsegaye Gebreyes Hunt, Aliza J. Hushmandi, Kiavash Hussain, Javid Hussain, M. Azhar Hussein, Nawfal R. Huynh, Hong-Han Hwang, Bing-Fang Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel Iftikhar, Pulwasha Maria Ikiroma, Adalia I. Ikwegbue, Paul Chukwudi Ilic, Irena M. Ilic, Milena D. Immurana, Mustapha Isa, Mustafa Alhaji Islam, Md. Rabiul Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Ismail, Faisal Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah Isola, Gaetano Iwagami, Masao Iyamu, Ihoghosa Osamuyi Jacob, Louis Jacobsen, Kathryn H. Jafarinia, Morteza Jahankhani, Kasra Jahanmehr, Nader Jain, Nityanand Jairoun, Ammar Abdulrahman Mani, Ruchi Jakhmola Jamil, Safayet Jamora, Roland Dominic G. Jatau, Abubakar Ibrahim Javadov, Sabzali Javaheri, Tahereh Jayaram, Shubha Jee, Sun Ha Jeganathan, Jayakumar Jiang, Heng Jokar, Mohammad Jonas, Jost B. Joseph, Nitin Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma Jürisson, Mikk Vaishali, K. Kabir, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kadashetti, Vidya Kalankesh, Laleh R. Kalra, Sanjay Kamath, Ashwin Kamath, Rajesh Kamireddy, Arun Kanaan, Mona Kanchan, Tanuj Kanmiki, Edmund Wedam Kanmodi, Kehinde Kazeem Kansal, Sushil Kumar Karim, Asima Karkhah, Samad Kashoo, Faizan Zaffar Kasraei, Hengameh Kassel, Molly B. Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal Kauppila, Joonas H. Kaur, Harkiran Kayode, Gbenga A. Kazemi, Foad Kazemian, Sina Kebede, Fassikaw Kendal, Evie Shoshannah Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle Khademvatan, Shahram Khajuria, Himanshu Khalaji, Amirmohammad Khalid, Asaad Khalid, Nauman Khalilian, Alireza Khamesipour, Faham Khan, Fayaz Khan, Mohammad Jobair Khan, Moien A.B. Khanmohammadi, Shaghayegh Khatab, Khaled Khatatbeh, Haitham Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli Kashani, Hamid Reza Khayat Kheirallah, Khalid A. Khokhar, Manoj Khormali, Moein Khorrami, Zahra Khosla, Atulya Aman Khosravi, Majid Khosrowjerdi, Mahmood Khubchandani, Jagdish Kifle, Zemene Demelash Kim, Grace Kim, Julie Sojin Kim, Min Seo Kim, Yun Jin Kimokoti, Ruth W. Kisa, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Knibbs, Luke D. Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo Kochhar, Sonali Kolahi, Ali-Asghar Kompani, Farzad Koren, Gerbrand Korzh, Oleksii Krishan, Kewal Krishna, Varun Krishnamoorthy, Vijay Bicer, Burcu Kucuk Kuddus, Md Abdul Kuddus, Mohammed Kuitunen, Ilari Kujan, Omar Kulimbet, Mukhtar Kulkarni, Vishnutheertha Kumar, G. Anil Kumar, Harish Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Rakesh Kumar, Vijay Kundu, Amartya Kusuma, Dian Kyei-Arthur, Frank Kytö, Ville Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe Vecchia, Carlo La Lacey, Ben Ladan, Muhammad Awwal Laflamme, Lucie Lahariya, Chandrakant Lai, Daphne Teck Ching Lalloo, Ratilal Lallukka, Tea Lám, Judit Lan, Qing Lan, Tuo Landires, Iván Lanfranchi, Francesco Langguth, Berthold Lansingh, Van Charles Laplante-Lévesque, Ariane Larijani, Bagher Larsson, Anders O. Lasrado, Savita Lauriola, Paolo Lawlor, Hilary R. Le, Huu-Hoai Le, Long Khanh Dao Le, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Thao Thi Thu Le, Trang Diep Thanh Leasher, Janet L. Lee, Doo Woong Lee, Munjae Lee, Paul H. Lee, Sang-Woong Lee, Seung Won Lee, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Yo Han Leigh, James Leong, Elvynna Li, Ming-Chieh Libra, Massimo Ligade, Virendra S. Lim, Lee-Ling Lim, Stephen S. Limenh, Liknaw Workie Lindholm, Daniel Lindstedt, Paulina A. Listl, Stefan Liu, Gang Liu, Shiwei Liu, Shuke Liu, Xiaofeng Liu, Xuefeng Llanaj, Erand López-Bueno, Rubén López-Gil, José Francisco Loreche, Arianna Maever Lotufo, Paulo A. Lozano, Rafael Lubinda, Jailos Lucchetti, Giancarlo Luo, Lisha Lusk, Jay B. Lv, Lei Amin, Hawraz Ibrahim M. Ma, Zheng Feei Maass, Kelsey Lynn Machairas, Nikolaos Machoy, Monika Madureira-Carvalho, Áurea M. El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd Maghazachi, Azzam A. Prasad, D.R. Mahadeshwara Mahalleh, Mehrdad Mahasha, Phetole Walter Mahmoud, Mansour Adam Mahmoudi, Elham Mahmoudvand, Golnaz Makama, Maureen Rad, Elaheh Malakan Malhotra, Kashish Malik, Ahmad Azam Malta, Deborah Carvalho Manla, Yosef Mansour, Ali Mansouri, Mohammad Hadi Mansouri, Pejman Mansouri, Vahid Mansourian, Marjan Mansournia, Mohammad Ali Marasini, Bishnu P. Marateb, Hamid Reza Maravilla, Joemer C. Mardi, Parham Marjani, Abdoljalal Moghadam, Hamed Markazi Arnedo, Carlos Alberto Marrugo Martinez, Gabriel Martinez-Piedra, Ramon Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio Martorell, Miquel Marx, Wolfgang Marzo, Roy Rillera Masoudi, Sahar Mathangasinghe, Yasith Mathioudakis, Alexander G. Mathur, Medha Mathur, Navgeet Mathur, Neeta Matozinhos, Fernanda Penido Mattumpuram, Jishanth Maude, Richard James Maugeri, Andrea Mayeli, Mahsa Mazidi, Mohsen Mazzotti, Antonio McGrath, John J. McKee, Martin McKowen, Anna Laura W. McPhail, Michael A. McPhail, Steven M. Mehmood, Asim Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Kamran Mehravar, Sepideh Meto, Tesfahun Mekene Melese, Endalkachew Belayneh Mendez-Lopez, Max Alberto Mendez Mendoza, Walter Menezes, Ritesh G. Mensah, George A. Mensah, Laverne G. Mentis, Alexios-Fotios A. Meo, Sultan Ayoub Meretoja, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J. Mersha, Abera M. Mestrovic, Tomislav Mettananda, Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda, Sachith Mhlanga, Adquate Mhlanga, Laurette Miazgowski, Tomasz Michalek, Irmina Maria de Sá, Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira Miller, Ted R. Minh, Le Huu Nhat Mirahmadi, Alireza Mirijello, Antonio Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. Mirzaei, Roya Mitchell, Philip B. Mittal, Chaitanya Moberg, Madeline E. Fard, Atousa Moghadam Mohajelin, Seyedehfatemeh Mohamadkhani, Ashraf Mohamed, Ahmed Ismail Mohamed, Jama Mohamed, Mouhand F.H. Mohamed, Nouh Saad Mohammad, Ameen Mosa Mohammadi, Soheil Mohammed, Hussen Mohammed, Mustapha Mohammed, Shafiu Mokdad, Ali H. Molokhia, Mariam Momani, Shaher Mohammad Momtazmanesh, Sara Monasta, Lorenzo Mondello, Stefania Moni, Mohammad Ali Montazeri, Fateme Ghalibaf, AmirAli Moodi Moradi, Maryam Moradi, Yousef Moraga, Paula Morawska, Lidia Moreira, Rafael Silveira Morovatdar, Negar Morrison, Shane Douglas Mosapour, Abbas Mosser, Jonathan F. Mossialos, Elias Motappa, Rohith Mougin, Vincent Mousavi, Parsa Mrejen, Matías Mubarik, Sumaira Mueller, Ulrich Otto Mulita, Francesk Munjal, Kavita Murillo-Zamora, Efrén Musallam, Khaled M. Musina, Ana-Maria Mustafa, Ghulam Myung, Woojae Nafei, Ayoub Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Naghavi, Pirouz Naik, Ganesh R. Naik, Gurudatta Nainu, Firzan Najdaghi, Soroush Ansari, Noureddin Nakhostin Nangia, Vinay Swamy, Sreenivas Narasimha Nargus, Shumaila Davani, Delaram Narimani Nascimento, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Gustavo G. Naser, Abdallah Y. Nashwan, Abdulqadir J. Natto, Zuhair S. Nauman, Javaid Navaratna, Samidi N.K. Naveed, Muhammad Nawsherwan Nayak, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Vinod C. Negash, Hadush Negoi, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Nejadghaderi, Seyed Aria Nejjari, Chakib Nematollahi, Soroush Netsere, Henok Biresaw Ng, Marie Nguefack-Tsague, Georges Ngunjiri, Josephine W. Nguyen, Anh Hoang Nguyen, Dang H. Nguyen, Duc Hoang Nguyen, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Nhan Nguyen, Nhien Ngoc Y. Nguyen, Phat Tuan Nguyen, QuynhAnh P. Nguyen, Van Thanh Minh, Duc Nguyen Tran Niazi, Robina Khan Nigatu, Yeshambel T. Niknam, Mahdieh Nikoobar, Ali Nikpoor, Amin Reza Nikravangolsefid, Nasrin Noman, Efaq Ali Nomura, Shuhei Noor, Syed Toukir Ahmed Noroozi, Nafise Nouri, Mehran Nozari, Majid Nri-Ezedi, Chisom Adaobi Ntaios, George Nunemo, Mengistu H. Nurrika, Dieta Nutor, Jerry John Nzoputam, Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet Oancea, Bogdan Obamiro, Kehinde O. Odetokun, Ismail A. Oduro, Michael Safo Ogundijo, Oluwaseun Adeolu Ogunfowokan, Adesola Adenike Ogunkoya, Abiola Oguntade, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oh, In-Hwan Ojo-Akosile, Tolulope R. Okati-Aliabad, Hassan Okekunle, Akinkunmi Paul Okonji, Osaretin Christabel Olagunju, Andrew T. Olatubi, Matthew Idowu Oliveira, Gláucia Maria Moraes Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Oluwafemi, Yinka Doris Omar, Hany A. Omer, Goran Latif Ong, Sokking Onie, Sandersan Onwujekwe, Obinna E. Opejin, Abdulahi Opejin Ordak, Michal Orish, Verner N. Ortiz, Alberto Ortiz-Prado, Esteban Osman, Wael M.S. Ostojic, Sergej M. Ostroff, Samuel M. Osuagwu, Uchechukwu Levi Otoiu, Adrian Otstavnov, Stanislav S. Ouyahia, Amel Owolabi, Mayowa O. Oyeyemi, Oyetunde T. Ozair, Ahmad Mahesh Padukudru, P.A. Padron-Monedero, Alicia Padubidri, Jagadish Rao Pal, Pramod Kumar Palicz, Tamás Pan, Feng Pan, Hai-Feng Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra Pandey, Anamika Pando-Robles, Victoria Pangaribuan, Helena Ullyartha Panos, Georgios D. Panos, Leonidas D. Pantazopoulos, Ioannis Stoian, Anca Mihaela Pantea Parikh, Romil R. Park, Eun-Kee Park, Seoyeon Park, Sungchul Parsons, Nicholas Parthasarathi, Ashwaghosha Pasovic, Maja Passera, Roberto Patel, Jay Pathan, Aslam Ramjan Patil, Shankargouda Patoulias, Dimitrios Pawar, Shrikant Toroudi, Hamidreza Pazoki Pease, Spencer A. Peden, Amy E. Pedersini, Paolo Pensato, Umberto Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino Peprah, Prince Pereira, Marcos Pereira, Maria Odete Perianayagam, Arokiasamy Perico, Norberto Perna, Simone Pesudovs, Konrad Petermann-Rocha, Fanny Emily Pham, Hoang Tran Philip, Anil K. Phillips, Michael R. Pigeolet, Manon Piradov, Michael A. Pisoni, Enrico Plotnikov, Evgenii Poddighe, Dimitri Polibin, Roman V. Poluru, Ramesh Ponkilainen, Ville T. Popovic, Djordje S. Postma, Maarten J. Pour-Rashidi, Ahmad Prabhu, Disha Prada, Sergio I. Pradhan, Jalandhar Pradhan, Pranil Man Singh Prashant, Akila Prates, Elton Junio Sady Priscilla, Tina Purnobasuki, Hery Purohit, Bharathi M. Puvvula, Jagadeesh Qasim, Nameer Hashim Qattea, Ibrahim Qazi, Asma Saleem Qian, Gangzhen Rad, Mehrdad Rabiee Radhakrishnan, Venkatraman Shahraki, Hadi Raeisi Rafferty, Quinn Raggi, Alberto Raggi, Cat Raheem, Nasiru Rahim, Fakher Rahim, Md Jillur Rahimibarghani, Sarvenaz Rahman, Md Mijanur Mijanur Rahman Rahman, Mosiur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Tafhimur Rahmani, Amir Masoud Rahmanian, Mohammad Rahmanian, Nazanin Rahmati, Rahem Rahmawaty, Setyaningrum Raimondo, Diego Raja, Adarsh Rajput, Prashant Ramadan, Majed Ramasamy, Shakthi Kumaran Ramazanu, Sheena Ramteke, Pramod W. Rana, Kritika Rana, Rishabh Kumar Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal Rane, Amey Rao, Chythra R. Rao, Mithun Rasella, Davide Rashedi, Vahid Rashid, Ahmed Mustafa Rasouli-Saravani, Ashkan Rastogi, Prateek Rasul, Azad Rathish, Devarajan Babu, Giridhara Rathnaiah Rauniyar, Santosh Kumar Ravangard, Ramin Rawaf, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Raza, Rabail Zehra Redwan, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Reifels, Lennart Reitsma, Marissa B. Remuzzi, Giuseppe Rengasamy, Kannan R.R. Reshmi, Bhageerathy Resnikoff, Serge Restaino, Stefano Reyes, Luis Felipe Rezaei, Nazila Rezaei, Negar Rezaei, Zahra Sadat Rezaeian, Mohsen Rhee, Taeho Gregory Rickard, Jennifer Robalik, Toshana Robinson-Oden, Hannah Elizabeth Rocha, Hermano Alexandre Lima Rodrigues, Mónica Rodriguez, Jefferson Antonio Buendia Roever, Leonardo Romadlon, Debby Syahru Ronfani, Luca Rony, Moustaq karim khan Roshandel, Gholamreza Rotimi, Kunle Rout, Himanshu Sekhar Roy, Bedanta Rubagotti, Enrico de Andrade Ruela, Guilherme Rumisha, Susan Fred Runghien, Tilleye Russo, Michele Saad, Aly M.A. Saber, Korosh Saber-Ayad, Maha Mohamed Sabet, Cameron John Sabour, Siamak Sachdev, Perminder S. Saddler, Adam Sadee, Bashdar Abuzed Sadeghi, Masoumeh Saeb, Mohammad Reza Saeed, Umar Safi, Sher Zaman Sagar, Rajesh Saghafi, Alireza Sagoe, Dominic Sahebkar, Amirhossein Sahoo, Pragyan Monalisa Sajid, Mirza Rizwan Salam, Nasir Salamati, Payman Salami, Afeez Abolarinwa Saleh, Mohamed A. Salehi, Leili Salem, Marwa Rashad Salemcity, Aanuoluwa James Salimi, Sohrab Kafil, Hossein Samadi Samargandy, Saad Samodra, Yoseph Leonardo Samy, Abdallah M. Sanabria, Juan Sanna, Francesca Santric-Milicevic, Milena M. Jose, Bruno Piassi Sao Saraswathy, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saravanan, Aswini Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo Sarode, Gargi Sachin Sarode, Sachin C. Sartorius, Benn Satpathy, Maheswar Sayeed, Abu Schaarschmidt, Benedikt Michael Schinckus, Christophe Schuermans, Art Schumacher, Austin E. Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth Schwebel, David C. Schwendicke, Falk Selvaraj, Siddharthan Semreen, Mohammad H. 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Zyoud, Samer H. Smith, Amanda E. Murray, Christopher J.L. |
| Informace o vydavateli: |
2024. |
| Rok vydání: |
2024 |
| Popis: |
Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license |
| Druh dokumentu: |
Article |
| Jazyk: |
English |
| Přístupová URL adresa: |
https://pergamos.lib.uoa.gr/uoa/dl/object/uoadl:3484010 |
| Přístupové číslo: |
edsair.od......2127..00c24794df09ff106d6be36627703832 |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
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